考虑城乡异质性的电动自行车头盔佩戴行为建模与分析

Modeling and Analysis of E-Bike Helmet Wearing Behavior Considering Urban-Rural Differences

电动自行车在成为居民短途出行主要交通工具的同时,与其相关的交通安全问题日益突出。正确佩戴头盔可以降低骑行者交通事故的死亡风险,然而统计数据显示,目前全国仍有近一半骑行者在骑行时不佩戴头盔,电动自行车的事故后果无法得到有效控制。较城市而言,乡镇拥有更多的电动自行车保有量,由于道路崎岖、交通建设不完善等原因更容易发生道路交通事故,尤其大量骑行者不佩戴头盔。为明确城市与乡镇骑手头盔佩戴行为异质机理,深入剖析骑手不佩戴头盔的深层原因,运用差异性检验和二项Logistic回归模型,分析骑行者特征、个体头盔认知、执法环境等因素对城市与乡镇骑手头盔佩戴行为的综合影响。研究结果表明:相较于长期生活在城市的群体,乡镇群体的主观安全意识偏弱,对头盔使用时存在的障碍(阻碍视野、不便利性等)较为关注;城市群体对交警执法活动较为敏感,并且在城市中出行时间越长的人越可能佩戴头盔;对于乡镇群体,头盔的保护效能以及价格是他们决策头盔佩戴行为考虑的重要因素。研究结果有助于交警进一步开展安全教育宣传以及执法活动,促进骑行者佩戴头盔安全出行。

When E-bikes have become the main means of transportation for short distance travel for residents,their related traffic safety issues are becoming increasingly prominent.Wearing helmets correctly can reduce the risk of death in traffic accidents for cyclists.However,statistical data shows that nearly half of cyclists in China still do not wear helmets while riding,and the consequences of E-bikes accidents cannot be effectively controlled.Compared with the urban,the rural has a higher number of E-bikes,and due to rugged roads and imperfect traffic construction,the rural is more prone to road traffic accidents,especially when a large number of cyclists do not wear helmets.To clarify the heterogeneous mechanism of helmet-wearing behaviors between urban and rural riders,and to deeply analyze the deeper reasons why riders do not wear helmets,the difference test and binomial Logistic regression model were used to analyze the comprehensive effects of rider characteristics,individual helmet awareness,and the law enforcement environment on helmet-wearing behaviors of urban and rural riders.The research results show that compared to the group living in the urban for a long period of time,the rural group has a weak subjective safety awareness and is more concerned about the barriers(obstruction of vision,inconvenience,etc.)that exist when using helmets.In addition,urban groups are more sensitive to traffic police enforcement activities and people who travel longer in the city are more likely to wear helmets.However,for rural groups,the protective effectiveness and price of helmets are important factors that they consider when making decisions about helmet wearing behavior.The research results may help traffic police to conduct further safety education and enforcement activities to promote safe travelling with helmets for cyclists.