省直管县财政改革促进县域粮食生产吗——基于准自然实验的证据

Does the Fiscal Reform of Province Governing County Promote CountyGrain Production? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

本文基于2000一2020年县级面板数据,使用交错双重差分方法估计省直管县财政改革对粮食生产的影响。研究发现:省直管县财政改革能显著促进县域粮食生产。省直管县财政改革通过提升县级政府财政治理能力,引导粮农增加粮食作物播种面积、提升农业机械化水平、增加化肥施用量等生产要素配置机制和强化省级政府粮食注意力分配机制,促进县域粮食生产。异质性分析表明,省直管县财政改革的粮食增产效应在非强县扩权试点县、经济欠发达县、财政弱县、粮食主产区县域以及产粮大县更为明显。省直管县财政改革实施时间越长,其粮食增产效应越明显。本文拓展了省直管县财政改革成效的研究,为新阶段深化省以下财政体制改革、维护国家粮食安全提供了经验证据和决策方向。应适度增强省级财政统筹调控能力,逐步优化省直管县财政改革的实施范围与实施方式,合理划分省级和县级政府的财政事权和支出责任,提升县级政府粮食安全保障的财政治理能力。

Based on the county-level panel data from 2000 to 2020,this paper estimates the impact of the fiscal reform of province governing county on grain production using the staggered Difference-in-Differences(DID)method.The study finds that the fiscal reform of province governing county significantly boosts county grain production.By enhancing the financial governance capacity of county-level governments,the fiscal reform of province goveming county leads to the increases of grain crops planting area,agricultural machinery level,and fertilizer usage as well as other production factors allocation mechanisms,and strengthens the distribution mechanism of provincial government"s attention to grain,thus promoting county-level grain production.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of the fiscal reform of province governing county on increasing grain production is more pronounced in non-"Strengthening County and Extending Power"pilot counties,economically underdeveloped counties,financially weak counties,major grain producing areas,and major grain producing counties.The longer the implementation of the fiscal reform of province governing county is,the more significant the grain yield increase effect is.This paper has expanded the literature on the effects of fiscal reform of province governing county,providing empirical evidence and decision-making directions for deepening the reform of the sub-provincial fiscal system and maintaining national food security in the new stage.It is supposed to moderately enhance the ability of provincial-level financial coordination and regulation,gradually optimize the implementation scope and methods of county-level financial reform under provincial direct management,reasonably divide the financial powers and expenditure responsibilities of provincial-level and county-level governments,and enhance the financial governance capacity of county-level governments in ensuring food security.