科技协议如何影响双边关系——基于双重差分的因果分析

How Science and Technology Agreements Affect Bilateral Relations: A Causal Analysis Based on a Difference-in-Differences Model

科技议题日益成为大国关系的焦点。学界对双边科技合作能否改善两国关系的议题一直存在争论。既有解释或将科技合作视为权力政治的附属,认为以改善两国关系为目标的科技合作无法遂愿;或将科技合作视为国家对外政策偏好的标志,认为科技合作能够改善双边关系。从合作机制的视角出发,国际政治中的双边科技协议除发挥推动科技交流的作用外,还因其潜在成本低、涉及争议少、灵活性高且容易产生广泛的跨国联系等特点,能够通过社会化机制推动合作促进双边关系改善,充当国家间合作的加速器。基于双重差分模型的大样本统计分析发现,双边科技协议虽然可以推动双边贸易和外交关系的改善,但这一合作扩散效应总体较弱,且效果也没有随时间的推移出现线性增长。随着合作机制社会化效应的显现,跨国科技联系往往会扩展至政府的控制范围之外,触及安全议题并引发安全关切,进而削弱双边科技协议的合作扩散效果。

Science and technology issues have increasingly become the focus of major power relations.However,will bilateral science and technology ties improve or worsen bilateral relations?The existing literature either views scientific and technological cooperation as an accessory to power politics and holds that scientific and technological cooperation to improve relations cannot achieve its goals,or it regards scientific and technological cooperation as a symbol of national foreign policy preferences and believes that scientific and technological cooperation will improve bilateral relations.From the perspective of cooperation institutions,bilateral science and technology agreements in international politics not only play a role in promoting scientific and technological exchanges but also have low potential costs,involve few disputes,are highly flexible,and can easily generate extensive transnational connections.The mechanism promotes bilateral cooperation to improve bilateral relations,thereby acting as an accelerator of cooperation between countries.Large-sample statistics based on the“difference-in-differences”model show that the signing of bilateral science and technology agreements can promote the improvement of bilateral trade and diplomatic relations.However,this cooperative diffusion effect is generally weak,and its effect does not increase linearly with time.As the socialization effect of cooperation institutions emerges,transnational scientific and technological connections will expand beyond the scope of government control,touch on security issues,trigger security concerns,and weaken the cooperative diffusion effect of bilateral science and technology agreements.