突发事件网络舆情风险等级判定与预警仿真

Risk Level Determination and Early Warning Simulation of Emergency Network Public Opinion

网络舆情事件具有突发性、暴发面积广等特点,如果不及时处理会造成严重的负面影响,为此提出一种基于直觉模糊的突发事件网络舆情风险预警方法。通过网络态势分析得出突发事件网络舆情演化过程,根据专家经验确定事件影响程度和传播速度,直觉模糊化处理推理条件以及网络舆情风险等级,明确两者之间的关系。计算推理结果和风险等级直觉模糊子集的贴近度,将最大贴近原则作为风险等级判定依据,实现突发事件网络舆情风险预警。实验结果表明,所提方法能够获取准确率较高的网络舆情风险预警结果,对于保障网络安全具有积极作用。

Network public opinion events have the characteristics of abruptness and wide outbreak area.If they are not handled in time,they will cause serious negative effects.Therefore,a network public opinion risk early warning method based on intuitionistic fuzziness is proposed for emergencies.The evolution process of network public opinion of emergencies is obtained through network situation analysis,the influence degree and propagation speed of the event are determined according to expert experience,the reasoning conditions and the risk level of network public opinion are intuitively blurred,and the relationship between them is clarified.Calculate the closeness of reasoning results and intuitionistic fuzzy subsets of risk levels,and use the maximum closeness principle as the basis for risk level judgment to achieve network public opinion risk early warning of emergencies.The experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain the network public opinion risk early warning results with high accuracy,and has a positive role in ensuring network security.