双碳背景下中国电力系统储能发展路径研究

Research on Development Path of Energy Storage in China's Power System under the Background of Dual-Carbon

双碳目标的提出是我国电力系统绿色转型的重大战略部署,储能有助于可再生能源并网、消纳以及新能源汽车发展,是支撑双碳目标实现的重要抓手。从技术、经济、商业模式、市场机制以及顶层设计等方面分析储能发展现存的问题。基于系统动力学构建储能潜力预测模型,仿真结果表明,基准发展情景下储能装机容量将达352.4GW,在电力系统中发挥重要作用。根据我国电力系统储能发展现状制定合理的发展路径,对助力我国能源结构升级、提高经济发展质量、推进双碳目标实现具有重要意义。

The proposal of the dual-carbon target is a major strategic deployment for the green transformation of energy system in China.Energy storage is conducive to the grid connection and consumption of renewable energy and the development of new energy vehicles,and is an important starting point to support the realization of the dualcarbon target.Based on the theory of system dynamics,this paper constructs a prediction model of energy storage po⁃tential.The simulation results show that the installed capacity of energy storage under the benchmark development scenario will reach 352.4 GW,which plays an important role in the power system.Analyzing the existing problems of energy storage development from the aspects of technology,economy,business model,market mechanism and top-level design,and formulating a reasonable development path according to the pain points of the development of energy stor⁃age industry is of great significance to help upgrade energy structure,improve the quality of economic development,and promote the realization of the dual-carbon goal.