伊宁市冬小麦产量预报模型研究

Prediction Model for Winter Wheat Yield in Yining

基于1976—2019年伊宁市冬小麦单产数据和气象资料,分析伊宁市近43 a冬小麦单产的变化情况,得到伊宁市冬小麦趋势产量的计算方程;计算出小麦气象产量,选取冬小麦生长期间的气温、降水和日照时数等的旬月值,分析气象产量与气象因子之间的关系,找出影响小麦产量的关键发育时段和主要影响因子,结合小麦生长发育状况,挑选出冬小麦气象产量预报因子,建立小麦气象产量预报方程,最后得出伊宁市冬小麦产量预报方程。经近4 a实际单产数据验证,预测效果较好,可以在业务中使用。研究结果可用于指导生产,指导农民改进冬小麦种植及田间管理方式,还可为政府部门制定保障粮食安全的决策提供科学依据。

Based on the winter wheat yield data and meteorological data collected in Yining City from 1976 to 2019,the changes in winter wheat yields in the last 43 years in Yining were analyzed to obtain equations for calculating the trend yield of Yining winter wheat.During the identification of the key developmental periods and major influencing factors affecting wheat yield,the relationship between meteorological yield and meteorological factors was analyzed by selecting the decadal and monthly values of temperature,precipitation,and sunshine hours during the growth of winter wheat.By incorporating the growth and development process of wheat,the factors for wheat meteorological yield forecasting were chosen,and a forecasting equation was constructed.Ultimately,an equation for forecasting the winter wheat yield in Yining City was obtained.Further investigation using yield data from the previous four years demonstrated satisfactory precision in predictions,which could be applied to a variety of commercial applications.The findings of this study can contribute to guiding production,improving farmers'planting and field management practices for winter wheat,and offering a scientific basis for the authorities to make cogent decisions and ensure food security.