基于序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法的孤岛微电网可靠性评估

Reliability Assessment of Islanded Microgrids Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation

为评估孤岛型微电网的可靠性以及分析储能装置对系统可靠性的影响,提出基于序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法的孤岛微电网可靠性评估方案。首先,以孤岛型风柴储混合微电网系统作为研究对象,搭建分布式电源等关键设备的出力模型;其次,制定可靠性评估指标体系、不同的储能运行策略及负荷削减策略,在此基础上提出基于序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法的孤岛风柴储微电网可靠性评估算法;最后,通过对改进的RBTS Bus 6 F4孤岛系统进行仿真,量化分析了储能装置的运行策略、储能容量、容量配置对系统可靠性水平的影响。结果表明:合理的储能策略、适当增大储能容量以及适宜的储能系统配置方案等均可提高系统可靠性。

To evaluate the reliability of islanded microgrid and analyze the impact of energy storage devices on system reliability,a reliability evaluation scheme of islanded microgrid based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation method was proposed.Firstly,the output model of key equipment such as distributed power supply is built by taking the island type wind turbine/diesel generator/energy storage hybrid microgrid system as the research object.Secondly,the reliability evaluation index system,different energy storage operation strategies and load reduction strategies were formulated.On this basis,the reliability evaluation algorithm of islanded wind turbine/diesel generator/energy storage microgrid based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation method was proposed.Finally,through the simulation of the improved RBTS Bus 6 F4 islanding system,the influence of the operation strategy,storage capacity and capacity configuration of the energy storage device on the reliability level of the system was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that reasonable energy storage strategy,appropriate increase of energy storage capacity and appropriate storage system configuration scheme can improve the system reliability.