生育成本社会化与政府生育支持政策——基于低生育率解释模型构建的视角

The Socialization of Fertility Costs and Government's Policy of Fertility Support——Based on the Construction of Explanatory Models for Low Fertility Rates

世界人口生育率逐年下降,然而其背后的作用机制至今尚未形成统一的认识。在突破传统家庭内部生育成本—效用对低生育率解释范式的基础上,引入生育成本社会化因素,认为家庭生育孩子资本要素占用和劳动要素占用以及社会化分担不足是造成世界生育率不断下降的主要原因。通过构建数理模型解释生育成本社会化对生育率降低的作用机理,并选取37个国家近41年面板数据实证检验理论模型的正确性,以此建立政府生育支持政策变量与关键宏观经济变量指标的关联和评价标准,最终求解政府最优生育支持政策组合,为实施生育支持政策提供参考。

The world's population fertility rate is decreasing year by year,but the mechanism behind it has not yet formed a unified understanding.On the basis of breaking through the traditional paradigm of explaining the world's low fertility rate based on the cost-effectiveness relationship within families,this paper introduces the socialization factor of fertility costs,and holds that the main reasons for the continuous decline in the world's fertility rate are the occupation of capital factor and labor factors,as well as insufficient social sharing of fertility costs.By constructing a mathematical model to explain the mechanism of the socialization of fertility costs on the reduction of fertility rates,and empirically testing the correctness of the theoretical model by selecting panel data from 37 countries in recent 41 years,we aim to establish the correlation and evaluation criteria between government fertility support policy variables and key macroeconomic variables,and ultimately find the optimal combination of government fertility support policies,providing guidance for the implementation of fertility support policies.