数字经济对碳排放的影响效应与机制研究

The Impact and Mechanism of Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions

依托技术进步来发挥数字经济的碳减排效应,是实现碳减排目标、推动绿色可持续发展的关键。将数字经济和“干中学”模型引入绿色索洛模型的分析框架,以揭示异质性技术进步下数字经济影响碳排放的新机制,并利用中国省级面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:数字经济的发展能够显著抑制碳排放,且二者之间的关系呈倒U型非线性特征。在数字经济的构成要素中,数字基础设施对降低碳排放的影响尤为显著。进一步对门槛效应的分析发现,只有当减排技术进步跨越阈值时,数字经济对碳排放的抑制作用才能被有效释放。此外,在短期内,生产技术进步是推动数字经济实现碳减排效应的核心动力,但从长期来看,减排技术进步是影响数字经济和碳排放的主要路径。

Relying on technological progress to leverage the carbon emission reduction effect of the digital economy is crucial for achieving carbon emission reduction targets and promoting sustainable development.This paper introduces digital economy and the Learning-by-doing model into the analytical framework of the Green Solow model.It reveals the new mechanism of the digital economy affecting carbon emissions under heterogeneous technological progress and conducts empirical analysis using provincial panel data from China.The results show that the development of the digital economy can significantly curb carbon emissions,and the two exhibit an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship.In terms of the components of the digital economy,digital infrastructure has the greatest impact on reducing carbon emissions.Further analysis of the threshold effect shows that the reduction of carbon emissions by the digital economy can only be effectively achieved when emission reduction technological progress surpasses a certain threshold.In addition,in the short term,production technological progress is the core driving force to promote the digital economy to achieve emission reduction effect,but in the long term,emission reduction technological progress is the main path to affect the digital economy and carbon emissions.