中国农村区域发展的南北差异及其驱动力分析

Regional Disparity and Driving Forces Analysis of Rural Development in China

基于2010−2019年中国农村区域发展指标的面板数据,分别采用熵权TOPSIS模型、人口加权变异系数双维分解和二次指派程序(QAP)考察中国农村区域发展南北差异的事实特征、结构特征和驱动特征,结果表明中国农村区域发展与中国区域发展演化具有一致性,存在南北差距扩大的发展态势。研究发现:(1)事实特征:中国农村区域发展水平总体向好,但“南强于北”的典型特征和“南快于北”的演进特征进一步凸显;(2)结构特征:一方面,中国农村区域发展地区差距总体有所下降,另一方面,现有差距主要源于北方地区内部差距,但南北间差距对总体差距的贡献显著上升;(3)驱动特征:中国农村区域发展以外源驱动为主,农村区域发展南北差距的驱动力量依次是产业高级化>城镇化>市场化>资源禀赋。

Based on the panel data of rural regional development indicators of China from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses entropy-TOPSIS model,population weighted variation coefficient and the quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)respectively to investigate the factual,structural and driving characteristics of the North-South disparities in rural regional development in China.The results show that the rural regional development is consistent with regional development evolution in China,showing a trend of widening North-South disparities.The findings are as follows.1)Factual characteristics:The development level of rural areas in China is generally improving,but the typical characteristics of“stronger in the South and weaker in the North”and the evolution characteristics of“faster in the South and slower in the North”are further highlighted.2)Structural characteristics:On the one hand,the regional disparities in rural regional development in China have declined over all.On the other hand,the existing disparities mainly stem from internal disparities in the northern regions,with the contribution of the disparities between the north and the south to the overall disparities significantly increasing.3)Driving characteristics:The development of rural areas in China is primarily driven by external factors,with the driving forces of the North-South disparities in rural development being industrial upgrading>urbanization>marketization>resource endowment.