溢价预期对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的非线性影响:基于质量认证的视角

Nonlinear Regulation Effect of Premium Expectation on Farmers’Green Control Technology Adoption Behavior:From the Perspec⁃tive of Quality Certification

绿色防控技术推广是应对气候变化和实现农业绿色转型的重要举措。现有研究往往单独分析溢价预期和质量认证对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响,忽视了农户在溢价预期的激励下主动参与质量认证的可能性和溢价预期的作用程度。本文构建“溢价预期—质量认证—绿色防控技术采纳行为”的分析框架,利用湖北省1039户水稻种植户调研数据,探究溢价预期对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响以及质量认证在其中的内在机制。结果显示:第一,溢价预期总体上显著促进了农户的绿色防控技术采纳行为,但溢价预期的促进效应呈现边际效应递减的非线性特征。而且,溢价预期对种植规模小、满足口粮型农户的绿色防控技术采纳行为的促进作用更强。第二,溢价预期与农户参与质量认证存在“倒U”型关系,即溢价预期对质量认证的影响具有“预期动力不足—溢价预期释放—溢价预期牵制”的非线性变化轨迹。第三,机制分析表明,溢价预期高的农户可以通过参与质量认证间接促进其采纳绿色防控技术。因此,有必要完善绿色农产品市场体系以强化农户对优质优价的信心,优化质量认证发展环境和配套措施吸纳农户广泛参与质量认证,实现对农户采纳绿色防控技术的长效激励。

The promotion of green control technologies is an important measure to address climate change and achieve green transformation in agriculture.Previous studies often separately analyzed the effects of mutually independent premium expectation and quality certification on farmers’adoption behavior of green control technologies,overlooking the possibilities of farmers actively participating in quality certification based on premium expectations and the extent of the role of premium expectations.This study constructs a theoretical framework of“premium expectation—quality certification—Green control technology adoption”and uses field survey data from 1039 rice farmers in Hubei Province to explore the impact of premium expectation on farmers’adoption behavior of green control technologies,as well as the inherent mechanism of quality certification.The results are as follows.First,the premium expectation has significantly promoted farmers’adoption of green control technologies overall,but the promotion effect of the premium expectation shows a non-linear characteristic of diminishing marginal effects.Moreover,the premium expectation has a stronger promoting effect on the adoption of green control technologies by small-scale farmers and subsistence-oriented farmers.Second,there is an“inverted U-shaped”curve relationship between premium expectation and farmers’participation in quality certification.The impact of premium expectation on quality certification demonstrates a non-linear trajectory of“insufficient expected power-release of premium expectation-constraint of premium expectation”.Thirdly,mechanism analysis shows that farmers with high premium expectation can participate in quality certification to promote their adoption of green control technologies.The policy implications are that the government should improve the green agricultural product market system to strengthen farmers’confidence in the market principles of high quality with high price,and optimize the development environment and supporting measures for quality certification to absorb farmers,achieving long-term incentives for farmers to adopt green control technologies.