中国气候风险领域的科技创新进展与展望

Progress and prospects of scientific and technological innovation in climate risk in China

气候变暖背景下,高频高强高影响的极端天气气候事件对自然生态系统和经济社会系统产生了可观测的明显影响,识别和定量评估气候变化风险、提高适应气候变化能力是学界和决策者高度重视的研究方向。本文从自然生态系统、社会经济系统、气候风险管理等角度梳理了气候变化风险领域科技创新的发展历程,分析当前研究的不足,结合国家适应气候变化战略提出了未来创新发展方向。气候变化风险研究仍处于初步阶段,需要进一步完善气候变化风险评估体系,形成综合风险评估体系;加强影响机理和综合风险研究,充分认识构成风险的关键要素,明晰重点领域气候风险阈值,减少气候变化风险预估的不确定性,为因地制宜实施气候变化适应技术提供科学支撑。

Extreme weather and climate events with high frequency,high intensity and high impact have observable adverse impacts on natural ecosystem and economic society under the context of climate change.Identifying and quantitatively assessing climate change risks and improving the ability to adapt to climate change are the key research points that policy makers attach great importance to.This paper reviews the development process of scientific and technological innovation in the field of climate change risk from the perspectives of natural ecosystem,social and economic system and climate risk management,summarizes the shortcomings of current research,and puts forward the direction of future innovation and development in combination with the national adaptation strategy to climate change.Research on climate change risk is still in the preliminary stage.Improving the methodological assessment system of climate change risk and forming a comprehensive risk assessment framework is in urgent need.The risk mechanism and aggregate risk research should be strengthened to fully understand the key factors and thresholds in key areas that constitute risks,reduce the uncertainty of climate change prediction,and provide scientific support for the implementation of climate change adaptation technologies according to local conditions.