156项工程与新中国地区工业集聚——基于产业关联的视角与证据

The 156 Projects and Regional Industrial Clustering of China——Evidence from Production Networks

本文从产业关联的角度实证考察新中国成立之初156项工程对地区工业集聚的影响。我们利用工业普查微观数据和地级市层面经济社会数据,研究了1949—1975年期间156项工程对所在地区的关联企业进入的影响。分析结果表明,156项工程建设地区的工业企业进入数显著多于其他地区;而且,在投入产出关系上距离156项工程行业较近行业的工业企业进入数显著多于较远行业,156项工程的产品分配端行业工业企业进入数要显著多于原料投入端行业。这些产业关联效应集中在156项工程建设完成之后而不是建设中。本文还发现,在改革开放之后,尤其是随着乡镇企业大发展和市场化改革加速,156项工程对工业企业进入仍然发挥产业关联和空间集聚的促进作用。为应对实证分析中可能的内生性问题,本文基于战争威胁构造了工具变量,进一步识别因果效应。本文还利用一些156项工程因战争威胁而改变项目建设地区,比较实际建设地区与计划建设地区在企业进入和产业关联上的差异,发现156项工程的工业扩张和产业关联效应更多发生在实际建设地区。这些结果说明,156项工程显著促进了地区工业的产业延伸与空间集聚,为新中国的工业体系建立和发展的具体路径提供了重要经验证据。

We study the production-linkage effects of the 156 projects on regional industrial clustering at the beginning of the People's Republic of China(PRC).We use panel data from 1949 to 1975 to empirically analyze the impact of the 156 projects on local firms'entries in the industrial production networks.The data are drawn from firm-level industrial surveys and prefecture-level information on industrial and social development.We find that the prefectures with the 156 projects have more firm entries than other prefectures.Industry-level analysis shows that the effects of the 156 projects on firm entries are larger for industries closer to the 156 projects in the production network.In addition,the effects in the network based on output linkages are larger than those in the network based on input linkages.These industry-level effects are concentrated in the period when the construction of the 156 projects was completed.We also show that the 156 projects have significant long-term effects on local production networks after 1978.To address the potential endogeneity issue in the empirical analysis,we exploit national defense considerations related to the 156 projects to conduct instrumental variable analysis and find robust results.We also identify some projects that moved from planned to actual sites because of the national defense considerations.Then we compare the production-network effects between the actual and planned locations and find those effects are concentrated in the actual locations.Our analysis shows that the 156 projects significantly improve regional industrial clustering and offers crucial empirical evidence for the establishment and development of the industrial system of the PRC.