外资进入与省域国内国际双重价值链嵌入——新发展格局下的理论与经验分析

Foreign Direct Investment and Provincial National and Global Dual Value Chain Embedding——The Theoretical and Empirical Analysis under the New Development Paradigm

外资对构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局至关重要。本文从马克思主义政治经济学理论和大国发展经济学视角出发,分析了外资在畅通国内大循环和深度融入国际外循环体系中的重要作用。此外,文章基于2007—2017年30个省域贸易增加值分解数据,揭示了省域国内国际双重价值链关联特征,并进一步实证检验了外资进入对省域国内国际双重价值链嵌入的影响和作用机制,并拓展了制度质量和信息化水平的分析情境。研究发现:第一,总体上,各省域对国内价值链和全球价值链的嵌入程度具有显著异质性。外资的进入提升了省域在国内国际双重价值链中的嵌入程度,且国际资本的进入在推动国内大循环构建与发展的同时更能推动国内各省域同国际外循环的价值链分工合作。第二,机制分析发现,外资进入主要通过生产率效应和示范带动效应促进省域同全球价值链的关联,以及通过外部冲击效应提升省域对国内价值链的嵌入程度。第三,异质性分析表明,外资进入对省域国内国际双重价值链关联的影响在东中西部间存在明显的地理区域差异,且在“一带一路”倡议提出以后,外资对省域国内国际双重价值链嵌入的促进效应得到了进一步提升。第四,进一步拓展制度和信息化情境分析发现,制度质量和信息化水平的提升能够正向调节外资进入对省域国内国际双重价值链关联的作用效应。此外,基于制度质量的二分法,产权制度和契约制度在激励外资与省域双重价值链关联关系的强度方面存在明显差异。

Foreign direct investment is crucial to the construction of a new pattern of development,with the domestic economy and international engagement providing mutual reinforcement,and the former as the mainstay.From the perspective of Marxist political economy theory and the development economics of large countries,this article analyzes the important role of foreign direct investment in unblocking the domestic general circulation and deepening the integration into the international external circulation system.In addition,this article reveals the characteristics of provincial national and international dual value chain linkages based on the decomposition data of the value added of trade in 30 provincial areas from 2007—2017,and further empirically examines the impact and mechanism of action of foreign direct investment on provincial national and international dual value chain embedding,as well as the moderating effects of institutional quality and informatization level.Firstly,the study finds that,overall,there is significant heterogeneity in the degree of embeddedness of provinces in national value chains and global value chains.The entry of foreign direct investment enhances the degree of national and international dual value chain embedding in provincial areas,and the entry of international capital promotes the construction and development of the domestic general cycle and at the same time promotes the value chain division of labor cooperation between domestic provinces and the international external cycle.Secondly,mechanistically,foreign direct investment entry promotes provincial linkages with global value chains mainly through competitive market effects and demonstration-driven effects,as well as enhancing provincial embedding in national value chains through external shock effects.Thirdly,the heterogeneity analysis shows that there are significant geographical differences between the East,Central and West in the impact of foreign capital entry on provincial national and global dual value chain linkages,and the promotion effect of foreign capital on provincial dual value chain linkages has been further enhanced after the“One Belt,One Road”initiative.Fourthly,further expanding the institutional and informational context analysis finds that the improvement of institutional quality and informational level positively moderates the effect of foreign direct investment on the provincial national and global dual value chain linkages.In addition,based on the dichotomy of institutional quality,there is a significant difference in the incentive intensity of the property rights regime and the contractual regime on the dual value chain linkage between foreign capital and the province.