国地税合并能够降低股价崩盘风险吗

Could the NTB-LTB Merger Reform Decrease Stock Price Crash Risk

本文基于2018年国地税合并的准自然实验,将税收征管的研究边界扩展至资本市场领域,在评估国地税合并对我国税务机关征管现状改善效果的同时,从股价崩盘风险的角度,考察国地税合并这一税收征管模式变革对我国金融市场稳定性的影响。研究结果显示,国地税合并后,企业的股价崩盘风险显著降低。异质性分析表明,国地税合并对企业股价崩盘风险的抑制作用在内部治理水平较差、外部监督水平较低和地区法治环境较差的企业中更为显著。机制检验结果表明,国地税合并提升了企业的信息透明度,促使企业更加及时地确认与披露企业相关的负面信息,最终使得股票价格不易受到坏消息集中释放造成的负面冲击,有效平滑了企业的股价崩盘风险。本文研究为理解税收征管活动对金融市场稳定的影响提供了来自微观企业层面的证据,也对现阶段的税收征管体制改革具有重要意义。

Taking the merger of National Tax Bureaus(NTB)-Local Tax Bureaus(LTB)in 2018 as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper estimates the impact of reform of tax collection and administration system on the financial market stabilization from the perspective of stock price crash risk.Our difference-in-difference estimation shows that after the NTB-LTB merger reform,firms'stock price crash risk significantly decreases,and this effect is more pronounced in firms with worse internal governance,lower external supervision and worse reginal legal environment.Further,the mechanism test shows that the NTB-LTB merger reform improves corporate information transparency and promotes firms to confirm and disclose the negative news timelier,and the stock price ultimately is not vulnerable to the negative shock that caused by the centralized release of bad news,which effectively lowers firms'stock price crash risk.Our findings provide micro-firm level evidence for exploring the impact of tax collection and management on the financial market stabilization,which is of great significance to the current reform of tax collection and management system.