财政规则能否抑制顺周期财政风险——基于第二代规则特征的实证分析

Do Fiscal Rules Curb Procyclical Fiscal Risks——Empirical Analysis Based on the Characteristics of the Second Generation Rules

良好的财政规则约束是建立规范化财政治理体系的重要内容。本文利用欧盟委员会财政规则数据集(ECFRD)实证分析了实施财政规则对顺周期财政政策的影响作用,并从经济周期波动的角度,分析第二代财政规则的周期平衡特征。本文研究发现,第一,政府实施财政规则能够显著降低财政政策的顺周期特性,缓释顺周期财政风险。第二,从分类别财政规则来看,支出规则和债务规则能够有效地控制顺周期财政风险,收入规则同预算平衡规则的影响并不显著。第三,在第二代财政规则中,支出规则对财政政策顺周期的影响系数有显著提升,收入规则并无明显变化,而预算平衡规则与债务规则转变为非显著影响,实施效果的时滞性可能是产生这一现象的重要原因。第四,拥有监督机制和违规制裁特征的财政规则能够提升其对顺周期特性的约束效果,而提升财政规则的公开性和灵活性强度会在一定程度上促进国家财政的顺周期特性。本文经验证明表示,探索建立正式的财政规则制度有助于我国建立现代财政治理体系,促进财政可持续发展,进一步保障逆周期性财政政策的稳定性。

Good fiscal rule constraint is an important content of establishing standardized fiscal governance system.This paper uses the European Commission Fiscal Rule Dataset(ECFRD)to empirically analyze the effect of implementing fiscal rules on procyclical fiscal policies,and analyzes the cyclical balance characteristics of the second generation fiscal rules from the perspective of economic cycle fluctuations.The main findings are as follows:First,the implementation of fiscal rules can significantly reduce the procyclical characteristics of fiscal policies and slow down the procyclical fiscal risks;Second,from the perspective of different fiscal rules,expenditure rules and debt rules can effectively control procyclical fiscal risks,while revenue rules and budget balance rules have no significant impact.Third,in the second generation of fiscal rules,the influence coefficient of expenditure rule on fiscal policy procyclicality has been significantly increased,while the revenue rules has no obvious change.However,the budget balance rules and debt rules change to non-significant effect,and the time delay of implementation effect may be an important reason for this phenomenon.Fourth,fiscal rules with the characteristics of supervision mechanism and sanctions against violations can enhance the restraint effect on procyclicality,and improving the openness and flexibility strength of fiscal rules can promote the procyclicality of national fiscal to a certain extent.In conclusion,exploring the formal financial rules system will help to establish the modern financial governance system,promote the sustainable development of finance,and further guarantee the stability of the anti-cyclical financial policy.