纳斯达克指数波动与风险分析:AI技术革新与宏观经济的关联性影响

NASDAQ Index Volatility and Risk Analysis:The Correlated Impacts of AI Technological Innovations and Macroeconomic Factors

美国纳斯达克综合指数2023年涨幅超40%,并在2024年第一季度维持强劲表现,其背后主要由市场对人工智能投资热潮持续、美联储重启宽松货币政策、美国经济“软着陆”的预期推动。但人工智能技术的进步和应用推广或不及预期、通胀持续影响美联储降息进程、美国财政和债务风险等因素可能导致上述预期难以实现,纳斯达克指数存在大幅下跌的风险。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在全球金融和经济领域的影响日益显著。我国需要密切关注纳斯达克指数大幅波动可能给国内金融市场带来的外溢风险。

The NASDAQ Composite generated over 40% return in 2023, and maintained strong performance momentumin the first quarter of 2024. The underlying drivers of NASDAQ Composite's performance are the market's optimistic expectationson the continued expansion of an artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom, the Federal Reserve's restart of monetaryeasing, and the successful“soft landing”of the US economy. However, these expectations face challenges. The AI technologybreakthrough and application expansion may not sustain, and the persistently high US inflation may impact the Federal Reserve'smonetary policy decisions. Additionally, the fiscal and debt risks of the US may induce economic crises. Consequently,there is a non-negligible and significant downside risk for NASDAQ Composite. Mainly composed of technology stocks, theNASDAQ Composite has an increasing influence on global finance and economy. China should monitor the risks associatedwith the index and prepare to manage the spillover risks in its financial markets.