“一带一路”倡议与全球经济治理——基于外部失衡的视角

“The Belt and Road”Initiative and Global Economic Governance—Based on the Perspective of External Imbalance

缓解世界经济失衡问题是全球经济治理的重要内容之一,在此背景下,“一带一路”倡议为全球经济治理提供了一种新路径。本文从理论机制上探讨了“一带一路”倡议对其共建国外部失衡变动的影响,并基于2000—2020年130个经济体的样本数据构建多时点双重差分模型(DID),实证检验“一带一路”倡议对共建国外部失衡变动的效应。结果表明:“一带一路”倡议显著减轻了共建国的外部失衡程度,对全球经济治理呈现出积极的作用,该结论的有效性在一系列稳健性检验中得到验证。异质性分析表明,“一带一路”倡议带来的外部失衡缓解效应对收入处于中高等、金融发展程度较低、经常账户持续逆差的经济体更为显著。机制检验表明,“一带一路”倡议通过贸易畅通、资金融通、权益资产规模提升与结构优化渠道对共建国外部失衡的缓解产生积极作用。本文从全球经济治理层面为理解“一带一路”倡议功能的发挥提供了新视角,在有效助力“一带一路”高质量发展的同时也在实践层面为推动外部失衡的调整与完善全球经济治理体系提供了重要政策参考。

Tackling the imbalance of the world economy has become one of the critical issues of global economic governance.In this context, China's Belt and Road Initiative provides a new path for global economic governance.This paper first theoretically shows the mechanism of“the Belt and Road”Initiative on the external imbalance in participatingcountries, then empirically tests the impact of“the Belt and Road”Initiative by constructing difference-in-differenceframework based on the sample data of 130 economies from 2000 to 2020. The results show that“the Belt and Road”Initiativehas significantly alleviated external imbalance for participation entities and played a positive role in global economic governance.The validity of this conclusion is verified by a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the reductioneffect is more significant in economies with middle-high income, low level of financial development, and persistent current accountdeficit. Mechanism analysis reveals that“the Belt and Road”Initiative alleviates external imbalance through channelsof trade, finance, and optimization of the scale and structure of equity assets.This study highlights the function of“the Belt and Road”Initiative from the perspective of global economic governance.It provides important policy implications for promoting the adjustment of external imbalance and improving the global economicgovernance system in practice while effectively contributing to the high-quality development of“the Belt and Road”Initiative.