货币政策的通货膨胀治理效果——基于价格之谜的视角

Research on the Inflation Control Effect of Monetary Policy——Based on the Price Puzzle

本文将数量型货币政策引入成本渠道的经典模型,从理论上证明了数量型货币政策也会引发价格之谜现象。基于SVAR和VECM模型的实证结果表明,中国数量型与价格型货币政策均存在价格之谜现象,但数量型货币政策的价格之谜现象更加严重。继续拓展理论模型可知,数量型货币政策不仅通过调控信贷数量直接影响企业成本,还通过影响贷款利率对企业成本产生叠加影响,因此会导致更为严重的价格之谜现象,基于反事实SVAR方法的实证结果也支持这一结论。研究结论表明,数量型货币政策在治理通货膨胀方面的效果较差,为我国货币政策调控方式向价格型转变提供理论与实证依据。

The price puzzle phenomenon means that when the central bank implements the expansionary/contractive monetary policy,the price level falls/rises synchronously in a short period of time,which means that the ability of monetary policy to control inflation is restrained.This paper introduces quantitative monetary policy into the classic model of cost channel,and theoretically proves that quantitative monetary policy can also cause price puzzle.The empirical results based on SVAR and VECM models show that there are price puzzles in both quantitative and price monetary policies in China,but the price puzzles in quantitative monetary policies are more serious.By expanding the theoretical model,we can know that quantitative monetary policy not only directly affects the cost of enterprises by regulating the amount of credit,but also superimposes the cost of enterprises by affecting the loan interest rate,which will lead to a more serious price puzzle.The empirical results based on the counterfactual SVAR method support this conclusion.The conclusion shows that the quantitative monetary policy is not effective in controlling inflation,and it is suggested that China should speed up the change of monetary policy regulation mode to price one.