城市人口一产业结构耦合协调发展水平测度及障碍因子分析——以苏州市为例

Measurement of the Coordinated Development Level of Urban Population-lndustrial Structure Coupling and Analysis of Obstacle Factors:A Case Study of Suzhou City

人口结构与产业结构是衡量城市发展质量的重要指标,两者的协调发展是城市高质量发展的必要条件和重要支撑,探究两者协调关系对于推动城市高质量发展具有重要意义。文章采用多指标评价法、耦合协调发展模型和障碍度模型探究人口结构与产业结构耦合协调发展特征及其障碍因素,并以苏州市为例,以乡镇街道为研究单元,选取2010年、2020年为研究断面,分析其协调发展水平、演变过程及影响因子。结果显示:(1)苏州市2010年、2020年人口结构与产业结构耦合协调度均值均大于0.975,说明人口结构和产业结构相互作用程度高。(2)2010年人口结构与产业结构协调发展度均值为0.529,2020年数值上升0.009,协调发展度提升主要源自“濒临失调区一勉强协调区一初级协调区依次演进”的贡献,协调发展整体水平呈现“两轴多片”分布格局。(3)人口就业结构、人口教育结构、人口规模、产业规模、产业结构高级化是制约人口结构与产业结构协调发展的重要障碍因素。最后,提出分区分类优化策略,以期促进人口结构与产业结构的良性互动,进而实现苏州高质量发展再上新台阶。

Population and industrial structures are key determinants of the quality of urban development,and their coordinated growth is a prerequisite and crucial factor for achieving high-quality urban development.Promoting high-quality urban development greatly benefits from examining how the two work in concert.The characteristics and barrier elements of the coupled and coordinated development of population structure and industrial structure are examined in this research using the multi-index evaluation technique,coupled and coordinated development model,and obstacle degree model.The study examines Suzhou city's coordinated development level,evolution process,and impact variables using township streets as the research unit,2010 and 2020 as the research cross-section,and Suzhou city as an example.The findings were as follows:(l)The average degree of coordination between Suzhou's industrial and demographic structures between 2010 and 2020 was more than 0.975,indicating a strong relationship between them.(2)In 2010,the average degree of coordinated development between the industrial structure and the population structure was 0.529;in 2020,the value rose by 0.009.The evolution of the borderline disordered area,the barely coordinated area,and the primary coordinated area all contribute to the improvement of the coordinated development degree,and the overall level of coordinated development displays a"two-axis and multi-slices"distribution pattern.(3)Significant barriers to the coordinated growth of population structure and industrial structure include population size,industrial scale,population employment structure,education structure,and industrial structure upgrading.To encourage a positive interaction between population structure and industrial structure and so realize the high-quality development of Suzhou to a new level,the article concludes by outlining an optimization method for zoning categorization.