资本积累机制的“双刃剑效应”与大国兴衰

The“Double-Edged Sword Effect”of the Capital Accumulation Mechanism and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers

近现代以来,大国兴衰的一大规律性现象就是:大国兴起于实体经济壮大,衰落于经济脱实向虚。进一步看,西方大国实体经济强弱与资本积累机制的两面性特征直接相关:它既是实体经济兴起和国家富强的动力源,也是经济“脱实向虚”和国家由盛转衰的祸根。在资本主义前期,因工业化带来的资本收益呈现边际效应递增趋势,由此推动西方国家持续发展实体工业;在资本主义后期,由于实体工业带来的收益呈现递减趋势,谋求资本增殖最大化与平均利润率持续下降趋势的矛盾,导致大国经济金融化,由此致使国家走向衰落。西方大国周期性兴衰的规律提示我们,中国要想保持持续崛起态势,必须坚定不移地优先发展实体经济,警惕经济金融化和金融资本反客为主。

Since modern times,one of the major regular phenomena in the rise and fall of great powers is that they rise in the growth of the real economy and fall in the decline of the real economy and the financialization of the economy.Further,the strength of the real economy of the Western powers is directly related to the twosided nature of the capital accumulation mechanism:it is not only the power source of the rise of the real economy and national prosperity,but also the bane of the economic development being“separated from the real economy towards virtual economy”and the decline of the country.In the early period of capitalism,the capital gains from industrialization showed a trend of increasing marginal effect,which pushed the Western countries to continue to develop the real industry.In the late capitalist period,as the gains from real industry show a decreasing trend,the contradiction between the maximization of capital increase and the continuous trend of average profit rate leads to the financialization of the economy of great powers,which leads to the decline of the country.The cyclical rise and fall of Western powers suggest to us that,in order for China to maintain a sustained rise,it must unswervingly give priority to the development of the real economy,and be wary of the financialization of the economy and the financial capital gaining the dominant position.