数字经济、生态保护与城乡融合发展的耦合协调效应——来自省域面板数据的实证检验

The Coupling and Coordination Effect of Digital Economy,Ecological Protection and Urban-rural Integrated Development——Empirical Test From Provincial Panel Data

数字经济-生态保护-城乡融合发展的耦合协调效应是检视经济与社会高质量发展的重要维度。基于2011-2021年中国省域面板数据,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析法以及灰色关联度模型,探究三者耦合协调发展的时空分异特征和驱动因素。研究结果表明:三个子系统的评价指数存在一定差异,城乡融合发展最高,生态保护居中,数字经济最低;从时间上看,研究期内三大系统的耦合协调度在低水平段位呈上升状态;从空间上看,三大系统耦合协调度表现为“东部>中部>西部”,且存在显著的正向空间自相关特征,局部空间自相关类型以“高-高”和“低-低”集聚为主;作为制约三大系统耦合协调发展的重要因素,产业结构、人口素质、经济驱动、政府调控、科技支撑的驱动效果依次递减。因此,要制定差异化区域协调发展战略,建构跨区域协作机制,实现数字经济、生态保护与城乡融合发展的互构式发展。

The coupling and coordination effect of digital economy,ecological protection and urban-rural integrated development is an important dimension to examine the high-quality economic and social development.Based on the panel data of China’s provinces from 2011 to 2021,this paper uses entropy method,coupling coordination degree model,exploratory spatial data analysis method and grey relational degree model to explore the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of the three coupling coordination development.The results show that there are some differences in the evaluation indexes of the three subsystems,with urban-rural integration being the highest,ecological protection the middle,and digital economy the lowest.From the time point of view,the coupling coordination degree of the three systems increased at the low level during the study period.From the perspective of space,the coordination degree of the three systems is displayed as“East>Middle>West”,and there are significant positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics,and the local spatial autocorrelation types are mainly“high-high”and“low-low”clusters.As an important factor restricting the coupled and coordinated development of the three systems,the driving effects of industrial structure,population quality,economic driving,government regulation and scientific and technological support are decreasing in turn.Therefore,it is necessary to formulate differentiated regional coordinated development strategies,construct cross-regional cooperation mechanisms,and realize the mutual development of digital economy,ecological protection and urban-rural integration.