基于PLUS和InVEST模型的荆州市碳储量评估与土地利用多情景模拟

Carbon Storage Assessment and Land Use Multi-scenario Simulation in Jingzhou City Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

以碳中和为背景,探讨荆州市近20 a碳储量的时空分布特征,分析土地利用变化与碳储量之间的关系,为优化土地利用结构提供支撑。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年荆州市土地利用共分为6类,包括耕地、林地、草地、湿地、水体、建设用地,其中耕地、草地、建设用地面积增加,林地、湿地、水体面积减少,其他地类向耕地、建设用地转换最多,其中人口、GDP、交通是主要驱动因子。(2)2000—2020年碳储量值整体呈增加趋势,共增加640万t,其中耕地、林地、草地贡献最多。(3)预测2030年自然发展、城镇发展、生态保护情景下碳储量值分别为13269万t、13225万t、13189万t,城镇发展情景下土地利用价值最高。以2000年、2010年土地利用为初始数据,利用PLUS模型模拟2020年土地利用,与2020年实际土地利用比较,得到Kappa系数=0.71,总精度=0.84,模拟结果具有显著一致性,该模型进行多情景模拟能够为国土空间规划和城市生态系统保护提供理论参考。

In the context of carbon neutrality,this study examines the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Jingzhou City over the past 20 years and analyzes the relationship between land use changes and carbon storage to support the optimization of land use structure.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,land use in Jingzhou was categorized into six types:cultivated land,forest land,grassland,wetland,water body,and construction land.The areas of cultivated land,grassland,and construction land increased,while the areas of forest land,wetland,and water bodies decreased.Other land types were primarily converted to cultivated land and construction land,with population growth,GDP,and transportation as the main driving factors.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the overall carbon storage value showed an increasing trend,with a total increase of 6.4 million tons.Cultivated land,forest land,and grassland contributed the most to this increase.(3)Predictions for 2030 under different scenarios—natural development,urban development,and ecological protection—show that carbon storage values will be 132.69 million tons,132.25 million tons,and 131.89 million tons,respectively.The highest land use value is predicted under the urban development scenario.Using 2000 and 2010 as the initial data,the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use in 2020 and compare it with the actual land use in 2020,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.71 and an overall accuracy of 0.84,indicating significant consistency between the simulation results and actual data.This multi-scenario simulation using the PLUS model can provide theoretical references for national spatial planning and urban ecosystem protection.