福建省旅游业碳排放脱钩关系及其驱动因素研究

Decoupling Relationship of Tourism Carbon Emissions and Its Driving Factors in Fujian Province

厘清福建省旅游业碳排放、探讨旅游发展与碳排放的脱钩关系及其驱动因素,是实现低碳旅游的关键。研究用“自上而下”法估算了2000—2021年福建省旅游业碳排放量,用Tapio脱钩指数模型分析了旅游收入与碳排放的脱钩关系,并用LMDI法分解了脱钩关系的驱动因素。结果显示:(1)2000—2021年,福建省旅游碳排放量从0.343百万t增至4.375百万t,增长显著,其中旅游交通碳排放占比最大,达82.32%。(2)旅游收入与碳排放的脱钩演变特征为扩张性负脱钩-弱脱钩-扩张性负脱钩,距强脱钩仍有较大差距。(3)旅游能源消费强度效应和旅游消费水平效应是脱钩的正向因素,其中能源强度效应波动较大,是未来减排的重点方向;游客规模效应和区域经济发展效应是脱钩的负向因素。

Understanding the carbon emissions of Fujian s tourism industry and exploring the decoupling relationship between tourism development and carbon emissions,as well as their driving factors,are crucial for achieving low-carbon tourism.This study estimated Fujian s tourism carbon emissions from 2000 to 2021 using a top-down approach.The Tapio decoupling index model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between tourism revenue and carbon emissions,and the LMDI method was applied to decompose the driving factors of this relationship.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2021,Fujian s tourism carbon emissions increased significantly from 0.343 million tons to 4.375 million tons,with tourism transportation emissions accounting for the largest share at 82.32%.(2)The evolution of the decoupling relationship between tourism revenue and carbon emissions exhibited a pattern of expansive negative decoupling weak decoupling expansive negative decoupling,indicating a considerable gap from achieving strong decoupling.(3)The effects of tourism energy consumption intensity and tourism consumption levels were positive factors for decoupling,with energy intensity effects showing significant fluctuations,marking it as a key direction for future emission reductions.Meanwhile,the effects of tourist scale and regional economic development were negative factors for decoupling.