1961—2020年黑龙江省最大雪深时空变化及其影响因素分析

Spatial and temporal variation of maximum snow depth and its influencing factors in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020

积雪作为重要的地表覆盖类型,其变化对当地的水文环境、物候变化均有重要的反馈和调节作用。基于1961—2020年黑龙江省62个气象观测站逐日积雪深度观测资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、经验正交函数(EOF)、相关分析等方法分析了黑龙江省最大积雪深度时空变化特征及其与大气环流、气温和降雪量要素的关系。结果表明:1961—2020年黑龙江省年、冬季、春季和秋季平均最大积雪深度分别为16 cm、14 cm、10 cm和8 cm;其中年、冬季和春季最大积雪深度呈显著增加趋势,增加速率分别为1.40 cm·(10a)^(-1)(P<0.01)、1.51 cm·(10a)^(-1)(P<0.01)、0.76 cm·(10a)^(-1)(P<0.05),秋季呈不显著增加趋势。1961—2020年黑龙江省年及各季节最大积雪深度均在20世纪末至21世纪初发生突变,突变后最大积雪深度均表现出年际变幅增大。黑龙江省最大积雪深度呈现出山地(大小兴安岭地区、完达山)大于平原(松嫩平原、三江平原)的空间分布特征,而变化速率为平原大于山地,其中松嫩平原最大积雪深度增速最明显。黑龙江省最大积雪深度存在东-西反向型、东南-西北反向型两种主要变化形式。气温、降雪量、北半球极涡强度、东亚槽强度均影响黑龙江省冬季最大积雪深度,其中降雪量和北半球极涡强度的影响大于气温和东亚槽强度的影响。随着气候变暖,气温和北半球极涡强度对冬季最大积雪深度的影响更加显著。

As an important type of land cover,the change of snow cover has important feedback and regulation effects on the local hydrological environment and phenological changes.Based on the daily snow depth observa-tion data of 62 meteorological observation stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of maximum snow depth in Heilongjiang Province and its relationship with at-mospheric circulation,temperature and snowfall factors were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test,empirical orthogo-nal function(EOF),correlation analysis and other methods.The results showed that the average maximum snow depth in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020 was 16 cm,14 cm,10 cm and 8 cm in autumn,respec-tively.The maximum snow depth in year,winter and spring showed a significant increase trend,with an in-crease rate of 1.40 cm⋅(10a)^(-1)(P<0.01),1.51 cm⋅(10a)^(-1)(P<0.01),and 0.76 cm⋅(10a)^(-1)(P<0.05),with an insignificant increase trend in autumn.From 1961 to 2020,the maximum annual and seasonal maximum snow depth in Heilongjiang Province changed abruptly in the late 20th century and early 21st century,and the maximum snow depth showed an increase in annual variation after the mutation.The maximum snow depth in Heilongjiang Province showed the spatial distribution characteristics of mountains(Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains,Wanda Mountains)than plains(Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain),while the change rate was that the plain was larger than the mountainous area,among which the maximum snow depth in the Songnen Plain in-creased the most.There are two main changes in the maximum snow depth in Heilongjiang Province:east-west reverse type and southeast-northwest reverse type.Temperature,snowfall,polar vortex intensity in the northern hemisphere,and East Asian trough intensity all affected the maximum winter depth in Heilongjiang Province,and the influence of snowfall and polar vortex intensity in the northern hemisphere was greater than that of tem-perature and East Asian trough intensity.As the climate warms,the influence of temperature and the intensity of polar vortexes in the northern hemisphere on the maximum snow depth in winter becomes more pronounced.