利比亚德尔纳2023年极端洪水模拟复盘分析

Retrospective simulation and analysis of 2023 extreme flood in Derna,Libya

全球气候变化背景下,极端强降雨和洪涝等水文事件的极值屡屡刷新历史记录,造成重大损失。2023年9月10—11日,在地中海飓风“丹尼尔”的影响下,利比亚东北部地区发生罕见特大暴雨,引发德尔纳市上游两座水库接连溃决,造成巨大人员伤亡。本文对德尔纳市极端洪水事件进行了梳理,并以德尔纳市洪灾及受影响区域为研究对象,建立了二维水动力模型,对溃坝洪水进行了模拟和复盘分析。通过哥白尼应急管理服务(Copernicus Emergency Management Service,CEMS)提供的受灾数据对模型结果进行对比验证(CEMS持续监测欧洲和全球即将发生或实时发生的灾难事件)。结果显示,影响德尔纳市的溃坝洪水持续了2 h左右,对城市的破坏主要集中在前30 min。本次复盘分析了德尔纳市溃坝洪水演进与风险分布特征,可为我国城市地区大坝溃决风险防控、早期预警和应急管理提供参考借鉴,同时也可为世界其他地区的大坝溃决风险防控、早期预警和应急管理提供参考借鉴。

In the context of global climate change,the extreme values of hydrological events such as extreme heavy rainfall and floods have repeatedly broken historical records,which caused huge losses in the world.From September 10 to 11,2023,under the influence of Mediterranean hurricane“Daniel”,a rare extremely heavy rainstorm occurred in northeast Libya,causing two reservoirs in the upper reaches of Derna to burst one after another.The dam-break floods caused huge casualties in Derna.This article summarized the extreme flood events in Derna City,employing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate the dam-break flood,based on which the dam break flood risks was mapped.The results were verified by the data obtained from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service(CEMS),which constantly monitors Europe and the globe for signals of impending disasters or evidence happening in real time.The simulation results showed that the dam-break flood lasted for about 2 hours,during which the damages and losses were concentrated in the first 30 minutes.The simulation results provide a distribution map of dam-break flood hazard in Derna City,which could provide data support for local reconstruction and flood control management.It also could provide reference for dam-break prevention,early warning and emergency management in other regions of the world.