北部湾城市群耕地集约利用空间异质性及其影响因素分析

Research on spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of intensive use of cultivated land in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration

为探究城市群耕地集约利用的空间异质性及影响因素与作用机理,本研究在综合评价框架下,从自然和人文两方面构建评测体系,运用主成分分析、Dagum基尼系数和地理加权回归模型,对2021年北部湾城市群进行实证分析。结果表明:耕地集约利用指数为0.334,基尼系数为0.183,以低度集约为主且存在明显的空间非均衡性,超变密度(50.33%)和省域内差异(45.60%)是空间非均衡的主要来源。气温(0.491)、农业播种面积占比(0.273)、高程(0.165)和城镇用地集约度(0.146)的地理加权回归系数相对较大且为正,降水(-0.440)、城镇化率(-0.207)和建设投入强度(-0.170)的回归系数相对较小且为负,各因素存在空间非平稳性。研究表明,北部湾城市群耕地集约利用空间异质性表现为格局的空间非均衡性和因素的空间非平稳性,多因素之间体现了耕地利用自然因素是基础本底、农用土地集约经营正向促进、非农用土地集约利用负向抑制的作用机理,提高城镇用地集约度、统筹农业播种规模、量化耕地报酬是提升耕地集约利用的关键抓手。

Scientific analysis of the spatial heterogeneity of intensive cultivated land use,and exploration of the influencing factors and their mechanism is of great practical significance for promoting intensive potential exploitation and efficient utilization of cultivated land resources.This study constructed a comprehensive evaluation framework based on two aspects:natural conditions and human factors.Principal component analysis,the Dagum Gini coefficient,and a geographically weighted regression model were used to empirically demonstrate the intensive use of cultivated land in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration in 2021.The index of cultivated land use intensification was 0.334,and the Gini coefficient was 0.183.The comprehensive level showed low intensity and no distinct spatial nonequilibrium characteristics,with the main sources being hypervariable density(50.33%)and the intra-provincial gap(45.60%).The geographically weighted regression coefficients of temperature(0.491),proportion of agricultural sown area(0.273),elevation(0.165),and urban land intensification(0.146)were relatively large and positive,whereas the regression coefficients of precipitation(-0.440),urbanization rate(-0.207),and construction input intensity(-0.170)were relatively small and negative.All factors exhibited spatial non-stationarity.This study shows that the spatial heterogeneity of intensive cultivated land use in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration is manifested by spatial non-equilibrium of pattern and spatial non-stationarity of factors.The mechanism of action among multiple factors reflects that natural factors are the basis,with agricultural land intensification being positively promoted and non-agricultural land intensification negatively inhibited.Improving the intensity of urban land use,coordinating the scale of agricultural sowing,and quantifying the remuneration of cultivated land are the key points to improve the level of intensive use of cultivated land.