中国耕地重心迁移特征及气候适宜性评价

Migration characteristics of cultivated land gravity center and climate suitability evaluation in China

为了解中国耕地空间格局与气候适宜性变化,基于耕地、降水和气温数据,运用重心迁移模型和生态位模型,对中国耕地重心迁移变化特征及气候适宜性进行分析.结果表明:1)2010-2020年,我国耕地重心向北迁移112 km,水田重心向东北迁移260 km,水浇地重心向西北迁移116 km,旱地重心向东北迁移90 km.2)耕地降水适宜性从我国东南向西北方向逐渐降低,积温适宜性从我国南方向北方逐渐降低,青藏高原积温适宜性程度最低,气候适宜性从我国东南向西北方向递减.3)水田的降水、积温和气候适宜性均为较适宜面积大,水浇地的降水和气候适宜性均为一般适宜面积大,积温适宜性为较适宜面积大,旱地的降水、积温和气候适宜性均为一般适宜面积大.4)耕地气候适宜性整体处于下降趋势,降水较适宜和不适宜耕地面积增加,极适宜和一般适宜耕地面积减少;积温极适宜和不适宜耕地面积增加,较适宜和一般适宜耕地面积减少;气候不适宜耕地面积增加,极适宜、较适宜和一般适宜耕地面积减少.建议严格保护耕地,尤其是水田等优质耕地,并根据气候条件开垦耕地和退耕,从而对耕地数量和质量进行综合保护.

To understand the spatial patterns of change in arable land and climate suitability,data on cultivated land,precipitation and temperature in China were applied to gravity center migration model and ecological niche model,to analyze change characteristics.From 2010 to 2020,the center of gravity of cultivated land migrated 112 km to the north,the center of gravity of paddy field migrated 260 km to the northeast,the center of gravity of irrigated land migrated 116 km to the northwest,and the center of gravity of dry land migrated 90 km to the northeast.The cultivated land precipitation suitability gradually decreased from southeast to northwest,accumulated temperature suitability gradually decreased from south to north(Qinghai-Xizang Plateau the lowest),the climate suitability gradually decreased from southeast to northwest.The precipitation,accumulated temperature,and climate suitability for paddy fields are large in area for the relatively suitable.The precipitation and climate suitability of irrigated land are large in area for the generally suitable.But the suitability for accumulated temperature is large in area for the relatively suitable.The precipitation,accumulated temperature,and climate suitability for dry land are large in area for the generally suitable.The climate suitability of cultivated land was on a downward trend.For precipitation,the area of relatively suitable and unsuitable farmland has increased,while the area of extremely suitable and generally suitable farmland has decreased.The area of cultivated land with extremely suitable and unsuitable accumulated temperature has increased,but the area of cultivated land with relatively suitable and generally suitable accumulated temperature has decreased.The unsuitable climate leads to an increase in arable land area,but the extremely suitable,relatively suitable,and generally suitable climate leads to a decrease in arable land area.We advise to strictly protect cultivated land,especially high-quality cultivated land such as paddy fields,and cultivate or return cultivated land according to climatic conditions,to comprehensively protect the quantity and quality of cultivated land.