1956~2020年天河流域水资源变化特征研究

Study on water resources variation of Tianhe Basin during 1956~2020

为了研究天河流域水资源变化情况,采用天河流域十堰境内各雨量站点以及贾家坊水文站1956~2020年实测降水、径流资料,结合流域内6个水生态监测断面逐月的水质监测数据,分析天河流域降水、径流、水质的变化情况,探讨流量对水质的影响。结果表明:天河流域降水有明显的年际变化,季节降水量以夏季最多,春、秋两季次之,冬季最少;除年、春季降水量表现为减少趋势外,其他3个季节的降水量均表现为增加趋势,春季降水量变化率为-5.92 mm/10 a,并且通过了5%显著性检验;年、季降水量UF曲线均没有超过显著性水平线,认为没有明显的突变点。天河流域地表水资源量呈减少趋势,下降速率约2086万m^(3)/10 a,M-K检测值为-3.67,呈显著的下降趋势;根据M-K突变点检验,天河流域地表水资源量在1991年前后发生了突变,产生了明显的下降趋势。利用贾家坊水文站的2015~2020年的实测月平均流量资料与逐月水质监测资料进行对比分析,没有发现水质参数浓度与流量变化之间表现出明显的关系。

In order to study the changes of water resources in Tianhe Basin,the changes of precipitation,runoff and water quality in Tianhe Basin were analyzed by using the measured precipitation and runoff data of each rainfall station in Shiyan and Jiajifang Hydrological Station from 1956 to 2020,combined with the monthly water quality monitoring data of six water ecological monitoring sections in the basin,and the impact of flow on water quality was discussed.The results indicated that the variation of annual precipitation was significant,the precipitation amount in summer had the greatest proportion of the annual total precipitation,following spring,autumn and winter.Additionally,the annual total precipitation and the total precipitation in summer had decreased tendency,while the other seasons showed a stable increasing trend.The change rate of spring precipitation was -5.92 mm/10 a,and passed the 5% significance test;the EF curves of annual and seasonal precipitation did not exceed the significance level,and it was considered that there was no obvious mutation point.The surface water resource was found significantly decreased by using Mann-Kendall trend test,the reduced rate was 20.86 million m^(3)/10 a,and the M-K detection value was-3.67.According to M-K mutation testing,it was found that the mutations occurred around 1991,and showed a clear downward trend.Compared the measured discharge data and water quality monitoring data in Jiajifang Hydrological Station from 2015 to 2020,there was no obvious relationship between them.