农业机械化可以解决农业劳动力短缺吗?

Can agricultural mechanization solve the shortage of agricultural labor?

从农村人口老龄化视角出发,研判农业机械对农业劳动力是否存在替代作用;判断我国当前农业劳动力是否短缺,预测我国未来农业机械化水平,尝试对“农业机械化可以解决农业劳动力短缺问题吗?”进行解答。采用我国31个省市2004—2020年省级面板数据,从农业机械对农业劳动力替代能力视角出发,采用交互固定效应模型,提出衡量农业机械替代能力的估计方法。实证结果表明:我国农业机械对农业劳动力的替代能力为:10000 kW的农业机械每年能够取代大约1169~1239个农业劳动力。并通过古典经济学测算方法、时间演绎法、ARIMA预测模型,对我国农业剩余劳动力数量以及农业机械化水平进行预测。结果表明:我国农业机械总动力水平大致以每年增加24946630 kW的速度增长,到2035年我国农业机械总动力大约会增加374199450 kW,农业机械化的增长能够弥补人口老龄化带来的农业劳动力短缺。

From the perspective of rural population aging,this article examines whether agricultural machinery has a substitutive effect on agricultural labor force.To determine whether there is a current shortage of agricultural labor in China,predict the future level of agricultural mechanization in China,and attempt to answer the question“Can agricultural mechanization solve the problem of agricultural labor shortage?”.Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2004 to 2020,from the perspective of the substitution ability of agricultural machinery for agricultural labor force,this paper uses the interactive fixed effect model to propose an estimation method to measure the substitution ability of agricultural machinery.The empirical results show that the substitution ability of agricultural machinery for agricultural labor force in China is as follows:10000 kilowatt agricultural machinery can replace about 1169-1239 agricultural labor force every year.After that,the number of agricultural surplus labor force and the level of agricultural mechanization in China are predicted by the classical economic calculation method,time deductive reasoning method and ARIMA prediction model.The results show that the total power level of agricultural machinery in China is increasing at a rate of approximately 24946630 kilowatts per year.By 2035,the total power of agricultural machinery in China will increase by 374199450 kilowatts.The growth of agricultural mechanization can make up for the shortage of agricultural labor caused by population aging.