中国特色社会主义粮食政策变迁与政策主体协同网络演化研究--基于1953-2022年政策文本的分析

Reseach on Changes in China’s Grain Policy and Evolution of Collaborative Networks in Grain Departments:Based on Policy Text Analysis from 1953 to 2022

[目的/意义]粮食政策是保障国家粮食安全的重要制度设计,研究其政策变迁历程及特征对优化中国特色社会主义粮食政策体系具有重要意义。[方法/过程]本文以1953-2022年发布的410份粮食政策为研究样本,运用新制度经济学中的制度变迁理论,结合重要事件法,划分了粮食政策主题变迁的历史阶段,发现粮食政策变迁的相机组合模式。基于社会网络理论,利用政策文本计量方法,研究了粮食政策主体的协同网络演化特征。[结果/结论]研究发现:(1)我国粮食政策变迁的总体基调由“以取为主”向“以予为主”转变,调控手段由政府主导向市场引导转变,实施目标由数量安全拓展到数量质量并重;(2)粮食政策变迁呈现出由强制性变迁向诱制性变迁转变、激进式变迁与渐进式变迁交替呈现、调控手段路径依赖等鲜明特征;(3)粮食政策主体具有典型的“小世界”网络特征,协同的复杂性、协调性与全域性愈发显著;(4)“广度-强度”二维分析框架表明,政策主体协同网络先后呈现出分散型、局部集中型、“中心-边缘”型、“中心-极化”型、均衡多主体型的演化趋势,且核心主体地位趋向稳固。

[Purpose/Significance]Grain policy is critical framework designed to ensure national grain secu-rity,thus it is of great significance to study its policy changes and characteristics for optimizing the socialist grain policy system with Chinese characteristics.[Method/Process]Taking 410 grain policies published from 1953 to 2022 as research samples,employing the institutional change theory in new institutional economics and the signif-icant event method,this paper categorizes the historical stages of the theme change of grain policy,and identifies the adaptive combination model of grain policy shifts.Utilizing social network theory and the policy text measure-ment method,this paper examines the evolution characteristics of the cooperative network of grain policy depart-ments.[Result/Conclusion]The research reveals several key findings:(1)The overarching theme of China’s grain policy changes from“taking first”to“giving first”,the regulation means from government to market guidance,and the implementation goal from quantity and safety to quantity and quality;(2)The transition of grain policy are characterized by a shift from mandatory change to inducement change,the change from radical change to gradual change,and the dependence of control means and path;(3)Grain policy departments have typical“small world”network characteristics,and the complexity,coordination,and globalization of cooperation are becoming increas-ingly important;(4)The two-dimensional analysis framework of“breadth intensity”indicates that the collaborative network of policy departments has shown a trend of decentralized,locally concentrated,center edge,center polar-ization,and balanced multi-agent configuration,with the roles of core actors becoming more stable.