传染病多点触发监测预警指标体系构建

Development of an indicator system for multi-point trigger surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases:a Delphi study

目的构建传染病多点触发监测预警指标体系,为完善传染病综合防控体系提供参考依据。方法通过文献研究和专题小组讨论初步拟定指标条目池,并在全国范围内遴选21名专家开展两轮德尔菲法专家咨询。根据专家对指标的重要性、可操作性、熟悉程度评分结果等,进行指标筛选和统计分析,最终确定各指标权重。结果2轮咨询的专家积极系数均为100%,专家权威程度均≥0.79,专家意见协调系数为0.34~0.46(均P<0.001)。根据传染病发生发展过程及相关多源数据融合碰撞需求,将指标体系划分成单一来源数据、多源数据融合、风险因素3个维度,最终建立了82个传染病多点触发监测预警指标。结论本研究所构建的传染病多点触发监测预警指标体系具有一定的科学性与合理性,可为拓宽传染病监测渠道、实现多点触发监测预警提供科学参考。

Objective To establish an indicator system for multi-point trigger surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases,providing valuable evidence to improve the overall prevention and control framework.Methods The pool of indicators was initially developed through a literature review and focus group discussions,followed by two rounds of Delphi expert consultations with 21 experts nationwide.Based on the experts'ratings of the importance,usability and familiarity of the indicators,the indicators were screened,statistically analyzed and their final weights determined.Results The positive coefficients of experts in the two rounds of consultation were both 100%,the authority coefficients of experts were both≥0.79,and the coordination coefficients of expert opinions were 0.34–0.46(all P<0.001).According to the occurrence and development process of infectious diseases and the requirements of related multi-source data fusion and collision,the indicator system was divided into three dimensions:single-source data,multisource data fusion and risk factors.Finally,82 indicators for multi-point trigger surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases were established.Conclusion The index system developed in this study for multi-point trigger surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases is based on sound scientific principles and reasoning.It has the potential to expand the channels of infectious disease monitoring and achieve multi-point trigger surveillance and early warning.