面向辅助决策支持的突发事件预案情景库构建研究

Research on the Construction of Contingency Plan Scenario Database for Auxiliary Decision Support

[目的/意义]构建基于案例推理方法的突发事件预案情景库,以辅助应急部门对突发事件的响应与决策,有利于对突发事件进行事中处理与事后管理,为建立“平战结合”一体化的应急管理打下基础。[方法/过程]基于本体法构建应急预案本体,利用多维情景空间方法与框架表示法对突发事件情景进行知识表示,从而构建突发事件预案情景库,并将案例推理方法应用于情景推理步骤及算法设计,以实现基于情景推理的辅助决策支持。[结果/结论]通过火灾事故实例应用,验证文章构建的情景库及情景匹配方法能够实现突发事件情景匹配,从而辅助当前突发事件应急决策制定,提高知识的可用性和共享性,为面向辅助决策支持的突发事件预案情景库构建提供理论依据。

[Purpose/Significance]The emergency plan scenario database based on case-based reasoning method is constructed to assist emergency departments in responding to and making decisions on emergencies,which is conducive to handling emergencies during and after the event,and lays a foundation for the establishment of emergency management integrating“peace and war”.[Method/Process]The ontology of emergency plan is constructed based on ontology method,and the knowledge representation of emergency is made by using multi-dimensional scenario space and frame representation method,so as to build the emergency plan scenario library.The case-based reasoning method is applied to the situational reasoning steps and algorithm design,so as to realize the auxiliary decision support based on situational reasoning.[Result/Conclusion]Through the case application of fire accidents,it is verified that the scenario database and the matching method constructed in this paper can achieve rapid scenario matching,so as to assist the current emergency decision-making,improve the availability and sharing of knowledge,and provide a theoretical basis for the construction of emergency plan scenario database for auxiliary decision support.