中国产业部门碳排放增长的结构性动因--基于SDA与LMDI耦合分解法

Structural drivers of carbon emission growth in China’s industrial sectors:A decomposition method by coupling SDA and LMDI

[目的]技术进步和需求结构的优化调整使产业部门低碳转型具备结构性动因,通过分解影响碳排放增长的各类因素,从而分析这一变化规律将为宏观减排路线谋划提供理论支撑。[方法]本文耦合结构分解分析(SDA)和对数平均权重Divisia指数法(LMDI)两类经典分解法,研制2005-2020年可比价投入产出表,对产业部门整体和细分行业部门碳排放增长的驱动因素进行了识别和分析。[结果](1)2005-2020年,产业部门碳排放总量由48.67亿t增长至106.77亿t,但5年平均增速已下降至2%以下;需求侧视角下,高碳部门向产业链下游延伸。(2)涉及技术进步的因素中,能源强度和生产结构效应的负贡献强于能源结构效应;涉及需求结构的因素中,投资扩张效应的正贡献始终强于消费拉动和出口变动效应;“十三五”以来,消费拉动效应的增碳和生产结构效应的减碳作用提升显著,部门间技术进步开始主导碳减排效应。(3)“十三五”时期,资源加工工业、电力热力燃气和水的生产和供应业、服务业整体处碳增长阶段,前者和后两者分别主要受投资扩张和消费拉动效应影响;采掘业、轻纺工业、机械及电子工业均由历史上的碳增长转向碳削减阶段,前者和后两者分别主要受进口替代和生产结构效应影响。[结论]2015年后,产业部门碳排放各类驱动因素的效力变化明显,促进最终需求结构和能源结构调整、产业链协同减排以及涉碳市场优化是未来产业部门碳减排的关注重点。

[Objective]Technological progress and the adjustment of demand structure have provided structural drivers for the low-carbon transformation of industrial sectors.By decomposing various factors that affect the growth of carbon emissions,the analysis of the above changes will provide a theoretical support for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.[Methods]This study,by coupling two classical decomposition methods of structural decomposition analysis(SDA)and logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI),developed input-output tables from 2005 to 2020 with comparable prices data,and identified the driving factors of carbon emission growth of industrial sectors at the whole and specific sector levels.[Results](1)From 2005 to 2020,the carbon emissions of the industrial sectors increased from 4.867×10^(9) tons to 10.677×10^(9) tons,while the five-year average growth rate has dropped to less than 2%.From the perspective of the demand side,more highcarbon emission sectors were in the downstream of the industrial chain.(2)Among the factors related to technological progress,the negative contribution of energy intensity and production structure effect were stronger than that of energy structure effect.Among the factors related to demand structure,the positive contribution of investment expansion effect was always stronger than that of consumption and export change effect.Since the 13th Five-Year Plan,the carbon emission growth impact of the consumption driving effect and the carbon emission reduction impact of the production structure effect have increased significantly,which means that intersectoral technological progress has begun to dominate the carbon emission reduction effect.(3)During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the carbon emissions of the resource processing industry,electric power industry,gas and water production and supply industry,and services industry were continuously growing.Among them,the resource processing industry was mainly affected by the investment expansion effect,and the other two types of industries were mainly affected by consumption driving effect.The carbon emissions of mining industry,textile and light industry,and machinery and electronics industry have all shifted from the historical carbon emission growth stage to carbon emission reduction stage.Among them,the mining industry was mainly affected by the import substitution effect,and the other two types of industries were mainly affected by the production structure effect.[Conclusion]After 2015,the effectiveness of various carbon emission driving factors has changed significantly.The adjustment of final demand structure and energy structure,coordinated emission reduction of the industrial chain,and optimization of carbon-related markets are the focus of carbon emission reduction of industrial sectors in the future.