台湾地区能源转型迟滞原因探析

Why is Chinese Taiwan's Energy Transition Sluggish?A Perspective of Transformation for Social-Technical System

我国台湾地区虽然较为重视能源转型,但与世界能源转型进程相比进展缓慢,而既有研究缺少基于长时段的整合性解释框架。基于“社会一技术系统”理论,从安全需求、行动者联盟和碳锁定三个层面建构台湾地区能源转型动力分析框架,进而解释能源转型迟滞。研究发现,台湾地区能源转型迟滞的具体原因包括:电力缺口相对气候与环境变化给台湾地区带来的压力更为紧迫,能源政策更多反映社会性安全;由于累积性的社会分歧结构以及“赢者通吃”的政治制度,台湾地区较难形成推动转型的行动者联盟;碳基社会的路径依赖效应使台湾地区社会较难摆脱高碳低价电力的生产、生活模式。理论方面,虽然以台湾地区为研究对象,但上述框架具有一定的普适性,并提出了关于行动者联盟的假设。在现实方面,随着政治极化,西方能源政策分歧程度势必加深。此外,对台湾地区能源转型的探究亦有利于两岸经济与社会的融合发展。

Although Chinese Taiwan pays more attention to promoting energy transition,it has made slow progress compared to the global process of energy transition.The existing research lacks an integrated explanatory framework on this topic based on a long period of time.Based on the theory of social-technical system,a dynamic analysis framework for energy transition in Taiwan can be constructed from three levels:Security requirements,Actor alliance and Carbon lock-in.This framework can then be used to explain the delayed energy transformation.The study found that the specific reasons for the sluggishness of energy transition in Chinese Taiwan include:firstly,the electrical power shortage is more urgent than the pressure brought by climate and environmental changes on Chinese Taiwan,and energy policies reflect social security more;secondly,due to the Cumulative social division structure and the winner takes all political system,it is more difficult for Chinese Taiwan to form a coalition of stakeholders to promote energy transition;thirdly,the path dependence effect of a carbon lock-in society makes it dificult for Chinese Taiwan society to shift away from the production and living mode of high-carbon and low-priced electricity.Theoretically,although the study focuses on the Taiwan region,the aforementioned framework possesses a certain level of universality and proposes a hypothesis regarding actor alliances.Practically,as political polarization increases,the divergence in energy policies in the West is bound to deepen.Additionally,exploring the energy transition in Taiwan also facilitates the integrated economic and social development across the Taiwan Strait.