政府隐性担保退出与国有非金融企业影子银行化——来自国有企业去僵尸化的证据

The Withdraw of Implicit Government Guarantees and Shadow Banking of State-Owned Non-financial Enterprises——Evidence from De-zombification of State-Owned Enterprises

政府隐性担保退出是市场化改革的必然结果,而我国国有非金融企业的影子银行化程度仍旧较高,因而非金融企业影子银行化是否会受到政府隐性担保退出的影响,值得研究。本文将政府隐性担保视作企业的一项无形资产,构建了政府隐性担保退出影响国有非金融企业影子银行化的实物期权分析框架,并基于2015—2022年的数据,将国有非金融企业去僵尸化作为政府隐性担保退出的代理变量,对理论进行了实证检验。结果表明,国有企业中政府隐性担保退出会降低影子银行化程度。进一步的机制检验表明,存在业绩压力增加、金融投资回报降低及创新提升效应;异质性检验表明,在地方国企、城市信用环境较差地区及政府债务可持续水平较高地区,政府隐形担保退出的影响更为明显。本文丰富了政府隐性担保及非金融企业影子银行化的研究,为我国治理非金融企业影子银行化提供了政策启示。

The withdrawal of government implicit guarantees is the inevitable result of market-oriented reform,but the shadow banking degree of state-owned non-financial enterprises in China is still relatively high.Whether the shadow banking of non-financial enterprises will be affected by the withdrawal of government implicit guarantees is worth studying.This paper regards government implicit guarantees as an intangible asset of enterprises,constructs a theoretical analysis framework of government implicit guarantees withdrawal affecting shadow banking of state-owned non-financial enterprises based on real option theory,and empirically tests the theory based on 2015-2022 data,taking de-zombification of state-owned non-financial enterprises as a proxy variable of government implicit guarantees withdrawal.The results show that government implicit guarantees withdrawal in state-owned enterprises reduces shadow banking degree.The mechanism test shows that there are performance pressure increasing effect,financial investment return decreasing effect and innovation promotion effect.Heterogeneity tests show that the influence is more obvious in the local state-owned enterprise samples,the areas with poorer urban credit environment and the areas with higher government debt sustainability.This paper enriches the research of government implicit guarantees and shadow banking of non-financial enterprises,and provides policy enlightenment for the governance of shadow banking of non-financial enterprises in China.