基于县域尺度的乡村韧性测量及其影响因素分析——以湖南省为例

Analysis of rural resilience measurement and its influencing factors based on county scale:A case study of Hunan Province

从抵御与吸收能力、恢复与适应能力、创新与转型能力三个维度构建乡村韧性测度指标体系,以湖南省101个县(市、区)为研究单元,以2012—2020年为研究时段,运用TOPSIS、灰色关联分析法,测度湖南省乡村韧性水平,分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内,湖南省乡村韧性稳步提升,但整体韧性水平仍然不高,抵御与吸收能力、恢复与适应能力提升明显,创新与转型能力变化幅度较小,水平一直较低,成为湖南省乡村韧性的短板;(2)在空间格局上,湖南省乡村韧性的空间分布存在明显分异,韧性水平与所在城市的经济社会发展水平较为一致,呈现出长株潭城市群地区乡村韧性水平高,湘南地区、洞庭湖地区次之,湘西地区最低的格局;(3)从影响因素来看,经济发展水平、社会结构对乡村韧性影响较大。针对湖南省区域之间韧性水平差异的现状,应因地制宜,根据区域不同特点,把握影响乡村韧性的关键因子,采取针对性措施来提升乡村韧性整体水平。

This paper constructs a rural resilience measurement index system from three dimensions:resistance and absorptive capacity,recovery and adaptive capacity,innovation and transformation capacity.Taking 101 counties(cities,districts)in Hunan Province as the research units and 2012-2020 as the research period,this paper uses TOPSIS and grey correlation analysis to measure the level of rural resilience in Hunan Province and analyze its influencing factors.Results show that:①From 2012 to 2020,rural resilience in Hunan Province has steadily improved,but the overall resilience level is still not high.Resistance and absorptive capacity,recovery and adaptability have improved significantly,and innovation and transformation capabilities have changed little and have been at a low level,which has become a weakness of rural resilience in Hunan Province;②In terms of spatial pattern,the spatial distribution of rural resilience in Hunan Province is clearly differentiated.The resilience level is more consistent with the economic and social development level of the city where it is located.The Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration has a high level of resilience,followed by the Dongting Lake area and southern Hunan,and the lowest pattern in the Xiangxi area;③From the perspective of influencing factors,the level of economic development and social structure have a greater impact on rural resilience.In view of the differences in resilience levels between regions in Hunan Province,measures should be taken in accordance with local conditions,grasp the key factors affecting rural resilience according to different regional characteristics,and take targeted measures to improve the overall level of rural resilience.