中国青少年公共体育资源配置时空演化与溢出效应研究——基于省际面板数据的空间杜宾模型分析

Research on the space-time evolution and spillover effect of public sports resources allocation of Chinese teenagers:Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model based on inter provincial panel data

青少年公共体育资源均衡合理化配置,是“十四五”时期深化青少年公共体育服务改革的重要环节,对于促进青少年群体身心健康发展具有重要现实意义。运用综合评价测度模型、探索性空间分析(ESDA)和空间杜宾模型及其偏微分分解等计量方法,对2010—2019年中国青少年公共体育资源配置水平的时空格局及空间溢出效应进行探究。结果表明:(1)全国和省际层面青少年公共体育资源配置水平总体均保持稳定上升的态势,空间上呈现“西南-东北”方向扩散递增的梯度分布格局,表现为“据点状”向“区块状”的空间演进趋势;江浙沪、京津和东北地区为高水平集聚区,中西部为低水平集聚区。(2)经济发展水平和政府支持力度对于配置水平的提升具有显著的促进作用,并呈现正向的空间溢出效应,而城镇化水平和地区生育水平存在着负向影响并表现出负向的溢出效应。

The balanced and rational allocation of public sports resources for teenagers is an important part of the reform of public sports services for youth in the 14th Five-Year period(2021-2025)and is of great practical significance in promoting healthy physical and mental development for teenagers.Using the Comprehensive Evaluation Measurement Model,Exploratory Spatial Analysis(ESDA),Spatial Dubin Model and its partial differential decomposition and other measurement methods,this paper explored the spatial and temporal pattern and spatial spillover effect of the allocation level of public sports resources for teenagers in China from 2010 to 2019.The results show that:①The allocation level of public sports resources for young people at the national and provincial levels has generally maintained a steady upward trend,showing a gradient distribution pattern of"southwest northeast"direction diffusion and increase,showing a spatial evolution trend from"spot"to"block";Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin and the Northeast are high-level clusters,while the central and western regions are low-level clusters.②The level of economic development and government support have a significant role in promoting the level of allocation and show a positive spatial spillover effect,while the level of urbanization and regional fertility have a negative impact and show a negative spillover effect.