乡村重构背景下建瓯市宅基地变化仿真与模拟

Simulation and modeling of changes in residential base in Jian’ou City under the background of rural reconstruction

为探究乡村重构背景下传统农区宅基地变化影响机理与趋势,以福建省建瓯市宅基地为研究对象,采用系统动力学方法研究该地区宅基地变化过程,预测2035年建瓯市宅基地利用状况,其中宅基地退出潜力系数间接表征宅基地利用效率。结果表明:1)在当前社会经济发展模式下,建瓯市宅基地面积、宅基地退出潜力系数和宅基地面积在建设用地面积中所占比例(简称宅基地面积所占比例)总体处于上升趋势;2)不同因素对宅基地面积、宅基地退出潜力系数和宅基地面积所占比例具有不同程度的影响。综上,本研究提出建议如下:以存量挖潜的方式盘活再利用闲置宅基地;推动多主体协同的宅基地退出模式;筑牢宅基地制度改革的安全保障底线。

The aim of the study is to systematically analyze the mechanism and developing trend of the effect of the change of the residence in traditional agricultural areas under the background of rural reconstruction.The residence of Jian’ou City,Fujian Province residence is taken as the research object,and a system dynamics method is used to study the process of the change of homesteads in the area,and to predict the status of the utilization of homesteads in Jian’ou City in 2035,where the coefficient of the potential for the exit of homesteads indirectly characterizes the efficiency of homesteads utilization.The results show that:1)Under the current pattern of socio-economic development,the area of homesteads,the coefficient of homestead exit potential and the proportion of homesteads in the area of construction land(referred to as the proportion of homesteads)are generally on an upward trend in Jian'ou City;2)Different factors display different degrees of effect on the area of homestead,the potential coefficient of homestead exit and the proportion of homesteads.In conclusion,this study proposed it is necessary to activate and reuse idle homesteads by tapping the potential of the stock,promote the homestead exit mode with the synergy of multiple main bodies and build up the safety and security bottom line of the reform of the homestead system.