稻虾生态种养技术会带来粮食数量安全问题吗?

Will the rice and crayfish co-culture techniques bring about food security issues?

为探究稻虾生态种养技术对粮食数量安全的影响,基于长江中下游地区2023年的农户微观调查数据,利用处理效应模型,实证检验了稻虾生态种养技术与国家粮食数量安全之间的关系。结果表明:1)农户采纳稻虾生态种养技术导致水稻总产量下降43.975%,稻虾生态种养技术会带来粮食数量安全问题。2)稻虾生态种养技术对粮食数量安全的威胁效应是非持续的,随着农户稻虾生态种养技术采纳的持续化、规范化及标准化,稻虾生态种养技术对粮食数量安全的威胁效应可能会逐渐消退。3)稻虾生态种养技术对粮食数量安全的威胁效应存在着禀赋条件异质性,小农户采纳稻虾生态种养技术对粮食数量安全的保障作用有限,规模农户采纳稻虾生态种养技术则对粮食数量安全有着显著的威胁效应;相比非农就业和低家庭收入的农户,未参与非农就业和高家庭收入的农户采纳稻虾生态种养技术对粮食数量安全的威胁效应更大。4)农户的年龄、文化程度、身体状况、土地禀赋及要素投入是影响农户稻虾生态种养技术采纳行为和水稻总产量的重要因素。因此,要普及标准化生产,同时强化对稻虾生态种养技术的监督,有针对性地推广稻虾生态种养技术。

In order to explore the impact of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques on food security,based on the micro-survey data of farmers in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in 2023,the relationship between rice crayfish co-culture techniques and national food security was empirically tested by using the treatment effect model.The results show that:1)Farmers’adoption of rice crayfish co-culture techniques will lead to a decrease of 43.975%in total rice yield,and rice and crayfish co-culture techniques will bring the problem of food security.2)The threat effect of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques on food security is not sustainable.With the continuation,normalization and standardization of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques adopted by farmers,the threat effect of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques on food security may gradually fade.3)The threat effect of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques on food security is heterogeneous in endowment conditions.The option of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques by small-scale farmers is limited effect on food security,while the adoption of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques by large-scale farmers has significant threat effect on food security.Compared with the farmers with non-farm employment and low household income,the farmers without non-farm employment and high household income adopted rice crayfish co-culture techniques,the techniques display a greater threat effect on food security.4)The age,education level,physical condition,land endowment and factor input of farmers are the important factors affecting the adoption behavior of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques and the total rice yield.Therefore,it is necessary to popularize standardized production,strengthen the supervision of rice and crayfish co-culture techniques and promote rice and crayfish co-culture techniques in a targeted way.