农业保险能否保障农民种粮收益?

Can agricultural insurance guarantee farmer’s income from grain production?

为探究农业保险对农民种粮收益的保障效果,基于2021年山东和辽宁省1 546份入户调研数据,通过倾向得分匹配法、工具变量法和IV-Tobit等方法进行了实证分析。结果表明:农业保险及保障深度对农户种粮收益具有显著的正向影响,赔付额度对种粮收益的影响不显著,可能是由于实际赔付中理赔不规范所致。进一步的机制分析表明:农业保险主要通过扩大经营规模,提高信贷可得和降低生产风险来保障农户种粮收益。相较于低兼业水平农户,农业保险对高兼业水平农户种粮收益的保障效果更明显;与未受灾农户相比,农业保险对受灾农户种粮收益的保障效果更显著。

To explore the protective effect of agricultural insurance on farmers'grain income,an empirical analysis was conducted based on 1546 household survey data from Shandong Province and Liaoning Province,and propensity score matching,instrumental variable method,and IV-Tobit methods were used.The results show that the agricultural insurance has a significant positive impact on farmers'grain income,but the impact of compensation amount on grain income is not significant,which may be caused by the nonstandard settlement of claims in actual compensation.The results of further mechanism analysis show that the agricultural insurance can guarantee farmers’grain income mainly by expanding planting scale,improving credit availability and reducing production risks.Compared with low part-time farmers,the agricultural insurance has a more significant effect on ensuring the income from grain cultivation for high part-time farmers.Compared with un-affected farmers,the agricultural insurance has a more significant impact on ensuring the benefits of grain cultivation for affected farmers.