代际财富流理论的拓展研究

An Extended Study of the Theory of Intergenerational Wealth Flows

考德威尔从微观家庭角度提出了代际财富流理论,认为家庭经济关系变革尤其是家庭内部代际财富流方向变化导致了生育率转变。该理论无疑具有独创性,但存在应用性与解释力问题。在代际财富流理论所描述的经验事实基础上,尝试将其核心概念和最关键命题操作化,并借助国民转移账户(NTA)项目提供的指标体系与数据,对其理论进行拓展。研究发现,将公共层面的代际财富流引入,可形成不同层面代际财富流方向的6种组合类型;伴随着人口老龄化进程,公共层面代际财富流方向发生了变化,导致广义层面代际财富流方向经历由向下到向上的转变;广义层面代际财富流方向变化受到人口结构和年龄别平均转移量的影响。拓展后的解释框架对人口老龄化背景下的代际财富转移和生育率转变研究有一定的启发意义。

John Caldwell developed the theory of intergenerational wealth flows at the micro-family level,which suggests that changes in family economic relations,particularly changes in the direction of intergenerational wealth flows within families,have led to fertility transition.It is undoubtedly original,but there are problems with its application and explanation.Based on the empirical facts described by the theory,an attempt is made to operationalize its concepts and core propositions,and to illustrate them empirically with the indicators and data provided by the National Transfer Accounts(NTA).It is found that introducing the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at the public level leads to more combinations of the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at different levels.Along with population ageing,changes in the direction of public-level intergenerational wealth flows can lead to a bottom-up shift in the direction of the aggregated flow.The shift is influenced by the demographic factors and the average age-specific transfers.