中国城市群人口分布结构合理性评价——基于城市群经济效益的分析

Evaluation of the Rationality of Population Distribution of Urban Agglomerations in China:Based on the Analysis of Economic Benefits of Urban Agglomerations

城市群人口分布的合理性对城市群高质量发展及国家区域协调发展至关重要。以城市群经济效益最大化为目标,理论推导出人口分布结构合理性指数(E-Zipf)公式,利用2010~2020年中国19个主要城市群的面板数据,采用系统GMM方法测算得出E-Zipf指数,并根据该标准对中国城市群人口分布现状进行合理性评价。研究发现,中国城市群的E-Zipf指数为1.33,高于Zipf等于1的一般标准;以E-Zipf等于1.33为标准,与传统Zipf等于1的标准相比,有6个城市群的人口分布是集聚不足而非集聚过度;合理性分类结果显示,6个城市群的人口分布处于合理范围,5个存在集聚过度,8个存在集聚不足。建议分类施策,积极引导集聚过度城市群疏解中心城市人口、适当发展外围城市,而集聚不足城市群则需要进一步引导人口向核心城市集聚。

The rationality of the population distribution of urban agglomerations is related to the high-quality development of urban agglomerations.Aiming at maximizing the economic benefits of urban agglomerations,this paper deduces the formula for the Structure Rationality Index(E-Zipf)of population distribution.It uses the panel data of 19 major urban agglomerations in China from 2010 to 2020 and adopts the systematic GMM method to calculate E-Zipf.The results show that the E-Zipf index of urban agglomerations in China is 1.33,which is higher than 1.Taking 1.33 as the standard,compared to the traditional standard of 1,the population distribution of 6 urban agglomerations is under-agglomeration rather than over-agglomeration.The results of rational classification show that the population distribution of 6 urban agglomerations,5 urban agglomerations,and 8 urban agglomerations is reasonable,over-agglomerated,and under-agglomerated,respectively.Over-agglomerated urban areas need to disperse the population of the central city and appropriately develop the peripheral cities,while under-agglomerated areas need to continue to concentrate population in their core cities.