基于GAMLSS的非一致性设计洪水研究——以云南省盘龙河龙潭寨水文站为例

Study on Non-stationary Design Floods Based on GAMLSS:A Case Study of Longtanzhai Hydrological Station in the Panlong River,Yunnan

气候变化和人类活动等因素使洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏,因此推求非一致性条件下的设计洪水具有重要的理论和实践价值。以云南省盘龙河龙潭寨水文站为例,采用实测、模拟和预测的降水和洪水数据,基于GAMLSS模型和等可靠度方法计算一致性以及以时间、降水为协变量的非一致性的设计洪水。结果表明:(1)以降水为协变量的非一致性概率模型好于以时间为协变量的非一致性和一致性的概率模型,其不仅能够模拟洪水序列的趋势,还能够反映洪水的波动变化。(2)龙潭寨水文站的一致性的设计洪水为269~423 m^(3)/s,总体大于非一致性的设计洪水(182~432 m^(3)/s)。(3)以降水为协变量的设计洪水更为合理。研究结果可为洪水灾害防治和水利工程设计等提供参考依据。

Owing to the climate change and human activities,it is important to use non-stationary methods for design flood calcu⁃lation.Taking Longtanzhai hydrological station on the Panlong River in Yunnan Province as a case,using the observed,simulated,and predicted precipitation and flood datasets based on the GAMLSS model and Equal Reliability method,the stationary and nonstationary design floods were calculated.The results show that:(1)the non-stationary probability models with precipitation as the covariate are better than the non-stationary probability models with time as the covariate and the stationary probability model.The precipitation-covariate models can both simulate the trend and fluctuation of floods.(2)The stationary design flood(269-423 m^(3)/s)is generally greater than the non-stationary one(182-432 m^(3)/s)at Longtanzhai hydrological station.(3)It is more reasonable to use precipitation as a covariate for the study case.The results could provide the references for flood management as well as the design of water conservation projects.