基于水文模型的山东半岛典型流域产流模式探讨

Exploration of Runoff-Generating Pattern in Typical Watersheds of Shandong Peninsula Based on Hydrological Models

为明晰山东半岛半湿润地区流域产流模式,以龙角山水库流域为例,利用28场洪水资料,以新安江模型和垂向混合产流模型作为蓄满产流和混合产流的代表,探讨半湿润地区流域产流模式。结果表明:(1)垂向混合产流模型的洪峰流量、峰现时间和径流深三个预报项目的平均合格率,在率定期和验证期分别为81.7%和91.7%,达到甲级精度,且模拟结果地面径流与壤中流占比大,对洪峰过程的模拟吻合度高。(2)新安江模型所有预报项目的平均合格率,在率定期和验证期分别为73.3%和83.3%,达到乙级精度,其模拟结果地下径流占比大,对退水过程模拟吻合度高。本研究确定了混合产流模式在龙角山水库流域的适用性要优于蓄满产流模式,对明晰山东半岛半湿润地区产流规律具有促进作用。

To clarify the runoff-generating pattern in semi humid region,taking Longjiaoshan reservoir in Shandong Peninsula as a case study,the Xin'anjiang model and vertical mixed runoff model were chosen to explore the runoff-generating pattern by 28 sessions of flood data.The results shows that:(1)the vertical mixed runoff model achieves the average qualification rate of 81.7%and 91.7%for all fore-cast items during the calibration and validation periods,reaching Class A accuracy,and demonstrating high conformity in simulating peak flow processes.(2)The Xin'anjiang model attaineds the average qualification rate of 73.3%and 83.3%for all forecast items during the calibration and validation periods,achieving Class B accuracy,and demonstrating good conformity in simulating recession processes.This study shows that the applicability of the mixed runoff model in Longjiaoshan Reservoir Basin is superior to the saturation excess runoff model,contributing to a better understanding of runoff-generating pattern in the semi-humid regions of the Shandong Peninsula.