黄浦江上游径流量变化与影响分析

Analysis of Discharge Variation and Influence in the Upstream of Huangpu River

近二十年来黄浦江上游来水大幅增加,为定量分析流量变化,主要采用距平分析及P-Ⅲ频率分析等方法,确定水文周期及典型年流量。结果显示:1962—2002年为一个完整的自然水文周期,在此周期内黄浦江上游年均流量为318 m^(3)/s;近十年黄浦江上游年均流量为623 m^(3)/s,重现期达两百年一遇;来水增多与流域降水并无明显相关性,主要为引江济太等跨流域引调水措施、城市化加强、河道工程和圩区建设等因素所致。水文情态的显著改变,对水文监测、管理、建设等诸多方面产生不容忽视的影响。

It can be seen that the discharge of the upper reaches of Huangpu River in the past 20 years has increased signifi-cantly.The change of discharge was analyzed quantitatively by anomaly analysis and P-III frequency analysis to determine the hy-droperiod and typical annual discharge.The result shows that 1962-2002 was a hydroperiod,during which the average annual dis-charge of the upper reaches of the Huangpu River was 318 m^(3)/s;The annual average discharge of the Huangpu River in the past 20 years was 623 m^(3)/s,with a return period of once in 200 years;There is no significant correlation between the increase of dis-charge and the basin precipitation,which is mainly caused by interbasin water transfer projects such as the Yangtze-Taihu Water Diversion,urbanization,channel engineering and polder construction.The significant change of hydrological modality has noticeable impacts on hydrometry,water management and construction.