场地修复异位热脱附碳排放核算、优化与预测

Accounting, optimization and prediction of carbon emission in ex-situ thermaldesorption for site remediation

场地修复碳排放随市场发展逐年增加,迫切需要采取碳减排措施,降低我国实现“双碳”目标的压力。本研究聚焦污染场地异位热脱附修复技术进行碳排放核算、减碳协同增效优化和潜力预测;以场地有机污染土壤修复活动为对象,对异位热脱附修复过程进行碳排放量化分析。本研究还基于生命周期评价理论探究国内外机构(IPCC、EPA、EEA、UK、CPC等)不同碳排放因子下的碳排放核算差异,探索技术优化、清洁电力能源优化(火电改风电、太阳能等)、能源类型调整(化石能源改为电力)策略下碳排放量核算差异及碳减排潜力,获取基于实际电网能源结构动态变化下碳排放量。此外,本研究利用我国2000—2022年电网能源结构数据,构建Prophet时间序列预测模型,对我国未来5年(2023—2028)有机污染场地异位热脱附技术碳排放量进行预测分析。因此,本研究有望提升场地修复热脱附碳排放核算精度,拓展和丰富减碳协同增效路径,获取动态变化下的碳排放预测和碳减排潜力预测方法提供理论基础。

Carbon emissions from site remediation have been steadily increasing in tandem with market development,necessitating urgent implementation of carbon reduction measures to alleviate the pressure on China's pursuit of its“double carbon”goal.This study focused on the ex-situ thermal desorption remediation technology for carbon emission accounting,carbon reduction synergistic optimization and potential prediction.The carbon emission in the process of ex-situ thermal desorption was quantitatively analyzed in the field of organic contaminated soil remediation.Based on the life cycle assessment theory,this study also explored variations in carbon emission accounting using different factors from domestic and foreign institutions(IPCC,EPA,EEA,UK,CPC,etc.).It investigated differences in carbon emission accounting and the potential for carbon emission reduction under strategies such as technology optimization,clean power energy optimization(from thermal power to wind power,solar energy),and energy type adjustment(from fossil energy to electricity).Additionally,this study used China's 2000-2022 power grid energy structure data to construct a Prophet time series prediction model to predict and analyze carbon emissions from ex-situ thermal desorption technology for organic contaminated sites in China in the next five years(2023-2028).Therefore,this study is expected to improve the accuracy of carbon emission accounting for thermal desorption in site remediation,expand and enrich the path of carbon reduction synergies,and provide theoretical basis for carbon emission prediction and carbon emission reduction potential prediction methods under dynamic changes.