气候变化对世界水稻单产的影响

Impacts of Climate Change on World Rice Yield

基于1961年以来数据,运用ARIMA-TR(自回归单积移动平均-趋势回归)模型预测2030年前世界水稻平均单产与最高单产,用2020和2021年实际单产检验预测信度,运用GS(灰色系统)模型验证预测效度,并运用一元回归模型分析全球平均气温和陆地降水变化对世界水稻平均单产和最高单产的影响。结果表明,世界水稻平均单产的ARIMA(1,1,1)模型RMSE(均方根误差)值大于TR二次方模型,世界水稻最高单产的ARIMA(1,1,2)模型RMSE(均方根误差)值大于TR二次方模型,即均以TR模型预测值作为ARIMA-TR模型的预测结果;2030年世界水稻平均单产将达5195 kg/hm^(2),最高单产将达10269 kg/hm^(2),前者达后者的50.6%;全球变暖对世界水稻单产的影响为负,其中对平均单产的负面影响小于最高单产;全球陆地降水量变化无明显升降趋势,对世界水稻单产的影响为正,其中对平均单产的正面影响略高于最高单产。该结果意味着气候变化促进世界水稻平均单产与最高单产差距将逐渐缩小。

Based on the data since 1961,the ARMI-TR(auto-regressive integrated moving average and trend regression)model was used to predict the average yield and top yield per unit area of world rice before 2030.The actual yield per unit area in 2020 and 2021 was used to test the prediction reliability,and the GS(grey system)model was used to verify the prediction validity.The effects of global mean temperature and land precipitation on average yield and top yield of rice in the world were analyzed by unary regression models.The results showed that the RMSE(root mean square error)value of ARIMA(1,1,1)model was greater than that of TR quadratic model,and the RMSE value of ARIMA(1,1,2)model was greater than that of TR quadratic model.That is,the predicted value of the TR model could be used as the prediction result of the ARMI-TR model.In 2030,the average yield per unit area of world rice would reach 5195 kg/hm^(2),and the highest yield per unit area would reach 10269 kg/hm^(2),the former reaching 50.6%of the latter.The effect of global warming on rice yield per unit area is negative,and the negative effect on the average yield per unit area is less than the top yield per unit area.There was no obvious upward or downward trend of global land precipitation change,and the positive effect on the average yield per unit area was slightly higher than the top yield per unit area.The findings indicate that the gap between the average yield and the top yield of world rice promoted by climate change will gradually narrow.