基于Joinpoint跃变模型的2010—2022年上海市浦东新区肺结核流行特征分析

Analysis on tuberculosis epidemic characteristics in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022 based on Joinpoint Jump model

目的分析2010—2022年上海市浦东新区肺结核流行特征,以完善防控策略和措施。方法通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”子系统“结核病信息管理系统”收集2010年1月1日—2022年12月31日上海市浦东新区肺结核登记报告信息,采用Joinpoint“跃变”模型分析变化趋势。结果2010—2022年上海市浦东新区登记肺结核患者19652例,登记发病率由31.77/10万降至16.24/10万,总体年均下降2.89%,其中2010—2021年每年登记患者数在1410~1708例,2022年仅938例,登记发病率较2021年下降34.06%;2019—2022年病原学阳性肺结核登记发病率年递降率为20.30%;2010—2022年登记发病率男性高于女性,年均分别下降3.19%和2.26%;15~<30岁青少年患者所占比例最高,但这一比例逐年下降,年均下降3.83%;本地户籍、非本地户籍人口肺结核登记发病率年均下降2.69%和2.60%,其中中心城区本地户籍人口年递降率为3.89%,变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论2010—2022年上海市浦东新区肺结核登记发病率总体逐年降低,2022年登记发病数和发病率大幅下降,未确诊和未治疗患者的增多将增加社区传播感染风险,应积极改革和完善相关结核病防治策略。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022,and improve prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods The registration report information of pulmonary tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from January 1,2010 to December 31,2022 was collected through the subsystem"tuberculosis information management system"of"China Disease Prevention and Control Information System",and the Joinpoint Jump Model was used to analyze the changing trend.Results There were 19652 registered tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022.With an average annual decline of 2.89%,the registered incidence decreased from 31.77/100000 to 16.24/100000.The number of registered patients ranged from 1410 to 1708 in 2010-2021,while the number was only 938 in 2022.Compared with 2021,the registered incidence decreased by 34.06%in 2022.The registered incidence rate of pathogenic positive tuberculosis decreased by 20.30%annually from 2019-2022.The registered incidence of male was higher than that of female,and the average annual decrease of male and female was 3.19%and 2.26%respectively.The patients aged 15-<30 years old took the most part of all the patients,but the proportion decreased by an average of 3.83%annually.The registered incidence of tuberculosis in the local registered residence and non local registered residence population decreased by 2.69%and 2.60%respectively,and the incidence of registered population in the central urban area decreased by 3.89%annually.The differences in all the above trends were statistically significant(all P<0.05).Conclusions The registered incidence of tuberculosis in decreased year by year from 2010-2022 in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City,and the number of registered patients and incidence rate dropped significantly in 2022,which showed a lag effect.With increasing numbers of undiagnosed and untreated patients,the risk of community transmission of infection may increase,the tuberculosis prevention and control strategies should be actively reformed and improved according to the situation in the post-public health emergency era.