资源分布视角下四川省公共卫生资源配置状况及预测分析

Analysis on public health resource allocation and forecast in Sichuan Province based on the perspective of resource distribution

目的分析四川省公共卫生资源配置状况和需求预测,为优化和发展四川省公共卫生资源提供参考依据。方法采用基于熵权法的资源分布指数、卫生资源密度指数分析2011—2020年四川省公共卫生资源配置状况并与全国平均水平进行对比分析,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测四川省公共卫生资源“十四五”期间的需求情况。结果2020年,四川省人均卫生总费用为4830.52元,每千人口卫生技术人员和床位数分别为0.483人和0.167张。2013年以来,四川省公共卫生资源的资源分布指数低于全国平均水平,这说明四川省公共卫生资源配置充足程度要低于全国平均水平。以全国的卫生资源密度指数作为参考标准,四川省卫生技术人员和床位数的缺乏量分别不低于3413人和927张,缺乏比例分别不低于14.15%和8.54%。根据预测,四川省公共卫生资源不断增长,2025年卫生总费用、卫生技术人员和床位数预计分别达到6420.071亿元、47299.274人和16990.614张,相较于2020年的年均增长率分别为9.49%、3.61%和4.06%。结论四川省公共卫生资源配置整体上低于全国平均水平,四川省卫生技术人员和床位数相较于全国还有较大不足,需进一步加强公共卫生资源配置。

Objective To analyze the allocation and demand forecast of public health resources in Sichuan Province,and provide scientific basis for optimizing and developing public health resources in Sichuan Province.Methods The allocation of public health resources in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2020 was analyzed using the index of resource distribution(IRD)based on the entropy weight method and health resource density index(HRDI)and compared with the average level in China,and the gray prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the demand for public health resources in Sichuan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Results In 2020,the per capita total health expenditure in Sichuan Province was 4830.52 yuan,and the number of health technicians and beds per 1,000 population was 0.483 and 0.167,respectively.Since 2013,the IRD of public health resources in Sichuan Province was lower than the average level in China,which indicated that the adequacy of public health resource allocation in Sichuan Province was lower than the average level in China.Taking HRDI of China as the reference standard,the deficiency of health technicians and number of beds in Sichuan Province was not less than 3413 and 927,respectively,with a deficiency ratio of not less than 14.15%and 8.54%,respectively.According to the forecast,public health resources in Sichuan Province were growing continuously,and the total health expenditure,health technicians and number of beds are expected to reach 642007.1 million yuan,47299.274 people and 16990.614 beds in 2025,respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 9.49%,3.61%and 4.06%,respectively compared to 2020.Conclusion The overall allocation of public health resources in Sichuan Province is lower than the average level in China,and the number of health technicians and beds in Sichuan Province is still a large shortage compared to the average level in China,and the allocation of public health resources needs to be further strengthened.